LBF issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) 294 FXUS63 KLBF 140858 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 358 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014 TODAY AND TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE ONGOING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE ACROSS NCNTL NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO EXIT 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING. A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPEARS ON SATELLITE ACROSS WY BUT THE MODELS DONT MAKE ANYTHING OUT OF THIS ACROSS SWRN NEB AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SUNNY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014 LARGE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST AND HEAD AWAY FROM OUR AREA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY. VERY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH A CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING JUST EAST OF OUR IMMEDIATE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RATHER COOL AIR ALOFT /H85 TEMPS 12 TO 16C/ WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S AT ALL LOCATIONS. AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. OPERATIONAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE GEFS AND SREF...BRING A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS DECENT CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...AND AN INCREASE IN POPS IS NECESSARY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE POPS...AS MID AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ROTATING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. DUE TO LOW LEVEL EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...HAVE LOWERED FORECASTED HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS QUITE COOL FOR MID JULY. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES MATCH GUIDANCE WELL...BUT ARE WARMER THAN RAW MODEL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT FEEL A 3 TO 5 DEGREE CUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A WARM UP WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED. HIGHS BY THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH 90S POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXPAND...WITH OUR AREA REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT WEST TO NORTHWEST. A DECENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS FORECASTED TO STALL IN OUR NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. DESPITE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR STORMS NEAR THE FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014 THE LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THEIR COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXPECTED EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT ANY ONE SITE. STILL...AS THINGS EVOLVE IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO INCLUDE TS OR VCTS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR LBF AND/OR VTN IF A PROJECTED PATH IS TOWARD EITHER TERMINAL. ALSO...ONE SHORT TERM MODEL IS SIGNALING FG/BR AT LBF 10-13Z. OTHER SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS DO NOT INDICATE FG/BR SO...FOR THE TIME BEING...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST FOR LBF. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...CDC
Posted on: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 08:58:15 +0000
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