LIKELY OUTCOME OF 2015 ELECTION I have discovered ofrecent that some Nigerians do view 2015 election fromthe angle of what they want instead ofviewing it from the angle of reality on ground. Since the begining offourth republic, the ruling party PDP has been having landslide victory. In 1999 election, Obasanjo ofPDP polled 18,738,154 to defeatOlu Falae ofAD-App who polled 11,110,287.In 2003 election, Obasanjo of PDP polled 24,456,140 to defeat Buhari of ANPP who polled 12,710,002 and some other contestants. In 2007 election, YarAdua ofPDP polled 24,638,063 to defeatBuhari ofANPP who polled 6,605,299 and some other contestants. In 2011 election, Jonathan of PDP polled 22,495,187 to defeatBuhari of CPC who polled 12,214,853. With the above results, it would have been so easier to predict the 2015 election in which one will give it to the PDP but the reverse is the case because of some reasons best known to all ofus. With the emergence of Jonathan as PDP candidate and Buhari as APC candidate, below is the analysis of the states that will be won by each ofthem: Abia-Jonathan, Adamawa- Buhari, Akwa Ibom-Jonathan, Anambra- Jonathan, Bauchi-Buhari, Bayelsa-Jonathan, Benue-Jonathan, Borno-Buhari, Cross River- Jonathan, Delta-Jonathan, Ebonyi-Jonathan, Edo-Jonathan, Ekiti-Jonathan, Enugu- Jonathan, Gombe-Buhari, Imo-Jonathan, Jigawa-Buhari, Kaduna-Buhari, Kano-Buhari, Katsina-Buhari, Kebbi-Buhari, Kogi-Jonanthan (under maybe), Kwara-Buhari, Lagos-Buhari, Nazarawa-Jonathan(under maybe), Niger- Buhari, Ogun-Buhari(under maybe), Ondo- Jonathan, Osun-Buhari, Oyo-Buhari(it would have been under maybe but the defection ofAkala and Makinde from PDP has indirectly put APC in a better position in Oyo state), Plateau-Jonathan, Rivers-Jonathan, Sokoto- Buhari, Taraba-Jonathan, Yobe-Buhari and Zamfara-Buhari. I can bet it with anything that the error of the analysis is maximum ofplus or minus 3states.The analysis up is about states where each candidate will have the higest score. The constitution requires the winner to have the simple majority ofthe votes cast and also scored 25% ofvotes cast in 2/3 of the states of the federation.I.e 24 states and FCT. Both candidates will fulfillthe second condition but no one can boldly predict who among the two of them will fulfillthe first condition i.e getting the simple majority of the votes cast because of the following reasons: According to INEC record of registered voters, North West 18,900,543 South West 14,296,163 North East 10,038,119 South South 8,937,053 North Central 7,675,363and South East 7,028,560.Jonathan has his major supports in South South, South East and partly North Central. Buhari has North West, North East and partly South West as his support base. If registered voters ofSouth South and South East are combined.....the number is not up to the number of registered voters in the North West alone. Secondly, majority ofNorth West governors that would have helped Jonathan to penetrate the North West to some extent as we witnessed in 2011 election have joined the opposition party. Nevertheless, Jonathan will be able to penetrate the stronghold ofBuhari more than how Buhari can penetrate to Jonathans stronghold. In conclusion, no amount of political strategy will make Jonathan to win majority ofthe votes cast in the North West, North East, Kwara and Niger in the North Central. Also no amount ofpolitical strategy will make Buhari to win in South South, South East and some states in North Central like Benue and Plateau. IfJonathan can win at least four states in the South West.....he will win but ifBuhari wins majority ofthe votes in the Southwest....it means he is our next president come 2015. Also, none ofthe candidates will emerge because ofhow competent he is. The winner will win because ofreligion and tribal sentiments of the Nigeria citizens. Just little percentage ofNigeria Citizens will not put religion and ethnicity into consideration before voting. As we can all see what the country has turned to. Ifyou commend Jonathan on anything, you will be tagged Jonathanian and ifyou criticize him on anything, you will be tagged APC member. Let us all vote for the candidate ofour choice, let us all peacefully accept the outcome and ifyou see any opinion that is differentfromyour own.....present a superior argument instead ofresulting to insult. No politician worths your blood! I have a dream to see a better Nigeria. Owonikoko Olufemi femo4best@yahoo
Posted on: Mon, 22 Dec 2014 04:30:43 +0000
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