MIDDAY MODEL UPDATE (1 of 3) The American model, or GFS, is out first. The Canadian will soon follow, and the EURO(my favorite and usually most reliable) will be out last(around 1:30pm). Lets see what the GFS says about the next few threats... 1) Holds serve on the idea of a few inches(1-3) of snow for most of South Jersey. Actually gives South Jersey more snow than central and north Jersey, as the original clipper dies after giving central PA/MD some snow, and a new low takes over along the coast, which we benefit from as we see some coastal enhancement. So the I-95 corridor gets the so-called shaft and sees the least snow. Its a plausible scenario, as one low dies and another forms, someone sees less snow than areas all around them. Timing remains the same...snow develops late morning to midday, steadiest in the afternoon, tapers off in the evening. 1-3 for everyone in Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland counties, 3 more likely points south and east, 1 points north and west. 2) This run of the GFS is MUCH more bullish on a stronger and closer to the coast coastal storm for this weekend(Saturday). With lack of cold air around, this would probably be rain at the coast, and heavier snow inland. Just where the rain/snow line sets up remains to be seen. But this has a better chance of being and I-95 points north and west snowstorm, and more rain(but perhaps some snow, especially away from the shore) here in South Jersey. Storm track and strength will determine precip type and intensity. Stay tuned... 3) Early next week threat(next Tuesday the 27th): The latest GFS still has the storm, but farther offshore and a non-impact for us. But the important fact is the storm is still on the model, just well out over the ocean. Plenty of time for that to change...and the potential for a storm in this window remains. In many respects, it will depend how the first two systems behave in determining the potential number three has. Again, these bullet points are what the model suggests, not necessarily my forecast. Ill have the Canadian and European model analysis when they come out in the next few hours....
Posted on: Tue, 20 Jan 2015 16:54:29 +0000
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