MUCH COLDER TO END DECEMBER? Despite the chilly air over the past few days, temperatures so far this December have been above normal. There are signs though that the pattern may return to a very cold one toward Christmas and beyond. The map below is the ensemble mean of the GFS for December 25th and 27th. The ensemble mean is basically the average of many models and the average typically does a better job with a forecast than any particular one. When I view these map, I am not looking for specifics...its too far out for that. What I do see though is a trend toward an east coast trough which would mean a return of cold air. The fact that this trough looks this deep two weeks out, tells me that many of the models are indicating/trending toward colder air and it COULD be a sign of a major arctic outbreak from Christmas through New Years for the eastern US. Again, its too far out to be specific with numbers or ANY type of precipitation.
Posted on: Fri, 12 Dec 2014 02:24:24 +0000
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