Many have mistakenly concluded that this is because the European Union asked Yanukovych to release Ukraine’s former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, his primary political opponent, from prison. In fact, Tymoshenko herself asked that her fate not affect the final outcome. Instead, Yanukovych abandoned five years of negotiations following a meeting with Putin, a politician who is playing a different game, according to a different set of rules. Unlike the European Union, Putin has sticks: He has imposed a trade boycott since August. Unlike the European Union, Putin offers carrots: He has hinted at lower gas prices, and maybe other things. Unlike the European Union, he can alter his policy abruptly: Although he tacitly consented to this negotiation process a few years ago, Putin has instead concluded that a Ukrainian-E.U. treaty is a humiliation for Russia and a personal loss of face. He might also perceive an economic and ideological threat: A Ukraine governed by the rule of law would be a tougher market for Russian companies desiring to be treated above the law. A Ukraine ruled by institutions instead of personalities might also seem an appealing alternative for disgruntled Russians.
Posted on: Fri, 29 Nov 2013 17:51:25 +0000
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