Morning e-mail from Jeff: Upper level ridge will exert its full force on the region over the next 48 hours with widespread 100 degree temperatures likely. Mean position of the upper level high over the SW US with its extension eastward across TX this morning. Compressional heating continues under this dome as the air generally sinks with a corresponding increase in mid level temperatures. College Station 100 yesterday and it looks like most areas will be at or above 100 degrees today. Seabreeze arrived along US 59 about 500-530pm yesterday or right near max heating in the City of Houston which did not help temper the afternoon highs. Friday will be another very warm day, but Saturday looks the warmest as a weak front drops southward into N TX allowing the air mass south of the boundary to really heat up. Low level winds have a more SW to WSW component on Saturday versus the SE component off the Gulf and this usually means very hot conditions. Will go with mid 100’s Saturday west of I-45 and 100-103 across Houston and the interior coastal counties. Beaches should be tempered in the upper 90’s, but should winds be more W than SW some of the hot inland air will spread back onto the coast and 100 at the beaches would be possible. As mentioned, a weak frontal boundary will be dropping through N TX on Saturday as the upper high retro-grades (moves westward) allowing increasing northerly flow aloft over the eastern half of TX. Super heated air mass on Saturday could result in an isolated strong thunderstorm especially from College Station to Livingston by late afternoon, but moisture is lacking so think the coverage will be on the low side. Boundary sinks southward on Sunday and as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 90’s expect a few additional storms to develop along/near the boundary. Soundings suggest an inverted V profile or layer of dry air below the thunderstorm bases which supports strong outflow winds and a damaging wind threat. Overall moisture is again on the low side so do not think there will be much coverage of storms, but the ones that do develop could be strong to severe. Looks like the boundary may in fact slip off the coast or outflow boundaries allowing drier air to filter into the area for early next week. This will allow overnight lows to fall off some, but keeps afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90’s as the dry air heats up quickly. 4th of July and beyond: Models are coming into agreement that the unusually deep trough over the eastern portion of the nation early next week will begin to back westward and could be over or just west of E TX by next Thursday. Tremendous tropical moisture over the Gulf of Mexico at this point (PWS at or above 2.0 inches) looks to advance on the coast by the afternoon of the 4th suggesting a fairly active seabreeze. With this trough axis possibly getting just west of the area by the 5th, moisture levels soar and rain chances will be on the rise. In fact the period from the 4th -7th of July is starting to look fairly wet.
Posted on: Thu, 27 Jun 2013 12:27:27 +0000
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