NFL Preview by BookieButchers Instead of going team-by-team, and division by division, I’m going to focus on week 1 matchups and preview each team in the context of that. There are plenty of good sources on the web with an overview of the league and each team, breaking down each team’s offense, defense, and special-teams. I will touch up on those things in my preview but within the contest of the betting odds. Keep in mind that I’ve worked on this over a period of a few weeks, so some lines/totals might be stale a bit as well as some recent info might be missing.Let’s get to it! NO @ ATL +2.5/+3 O/U: 51.5 Season Totals: Atlanta Falcons U 8.5 New Orleans Saints O 9.5 This line opened at -1.5 Atlanta, jumped to +1.5 ATL around August 17th, and then crept up to +2.5 or +3 depending on the book. That’s a line-move of about 4-4.5 points which is huge during the regular season, but maybe isn’t as big of a deal in the off-season. Based on the ‘juice’, the season-totals indicate that bookmakers are projecting the Falcons to be an 8-8 team and the Saints to be a 10-6 squad. Clearly New Orleans is a ‘better’ team coming into this season. So should we just back the ‘better’ team in this matchup and move on, hoping for a 3-point Saints win on the road (assuming we get -2.5 NO)? Last year the Saints were -3.5 point home favorites on 09/08 (opening weekend), winning by 6 points. They then proceeded to be listed at -7.5 on the road in the rematch, when it was clear that Atlanta was an inferior team, winning that one by 4. Now they’re at -2.5/-3 for the 2014 opening weekend. Hmmm…seem a bit over-valued all of a sudden. Last season the Saints ended the year as the 7th best team based on Efficiency ratings, while Atlanta was 27th. Based on SRS, Saints were +8.8 last year (6th best mark in the league), while Atlanta was at -2.8. New Orleans ended the year as the 5th best offense (shocker!), while Atlanta was #14, though of course with a healthy Julio Jones, Roddy White (missed games and played hurt), Steven Jackson, Harry Douglass, and an improved O-line (drafted Jake Matthews / signed Jon Asamoah) you have to believe that ATL’s offense will improve. Keep in mind though that the O-line is being overhauled so the cohesion factor might not be there. They also played the 2nd toughest schedule last year and with easier schedule this season (#14 SOS) you can assume Atlanta’s offense to be an improved unit, though age (White, Jackson) and durability (Douglass, Baker) are a concern. So both teams will be very good offensively, so the question then becomes which team will have a better D? Not sure if a lot of people know this but the Saints actually ended last year as the 10th best defense. They ranked 6th against the pass (much more important) and 20th against the run (less important), ranked 4thin ASR% @ 8.6%, and 14th in ALY (Adjusted Line Yards) allowed. Saints struggled in the open-field, ranking 30th defensively in Open-Field Yds, but they’ve addressed this in the offseason. The Saints signed Jarius Byrd, a 3-time Pro Bowler. Besides Byrd, the Saints will have most of their starters and key backups back as well. With an aggressive scheme from Rob Ryan and overall continuity on that side of the ball, expect the Saints defense to be just as good if not better this year. Not sure the same could be said for the Falcons. Atlanta’s D ranked 29th overall last year, 32 against the pass, and 25th against the run. They ranked 32nd in ASR% @ 5.3% and 27th in ALY @ 4.3. They brought in a couple of D-Tackles in the off-season but didn’t really address the pass-rush. Osi Umenyiora is 34 years old and is a part-time player at this point of his career, and the other DE’s (Massaquoi and Goodman) combined for only 4.0 sacks last year. The biggest blow to this defense was of course the season-ending Achilles injury to Sean Weatherspoon in the OTA’s. This leaves the Falcons with Worrilow and Bartu, two undrafted rookies in 2013 who started a number of games last year, which is part of the reason why ATL ranked so poorly defensively. They’re back!! Oh and I forgot to mention that Atlanta is moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 D this year. A lot of young players, devastating loss to their best defender in the off-season, and a switch in defensive philosophy – this seems to me like another year of ‘growing pains’ on the defense side for the Falcons. Breaking down these two teams, I think it’s pretty clear that the Saints are a better team, especially early in the year. The line movement is probably an indication of that. But of course you have to consider the fact that Atlanta is healthy offensively, this is a divisional game, and most importantly the game is in Atlanta, where the Falcons are 2-0 ATS against the Saints in the last two years. Home-field has been crucial in this rivalry over the years and in week 1 of the season, when we don’t know as much about these teams as we all ‘think’ we do (especially myself), grabbing points at home is a strong ‘value’ play. Besides, do you guys know who is returning kicks for Atlanta this year?!? My boy D-Hest (I’m a Bears fan) of course and all it takes is “one” to make a huge impact on the outcome of the game. Lean: ATL +3 and UNDER 51.5
Posted on: Thu, 04 Sep 2014 08:04:04 +0000