NHC Atlantic Outlook: ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA. 1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES OVER LAND...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO FORECASTER BERG nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
Posted on: Tue, 10 Sep 2013 17:53:42 +0000