Nigeria was established January 1, 1914 following the amalgamation of the then Northern Nigeria and the Southern Nigeria protectorates with the eventual attainment of independence from the British colonial masters on October 1, 1960. The new country, roughly 923,768 sq km in land size and a population of 45.2m people including a vibrant highly educated elite class, was easily one of the most promising in Africa at independence. Fast forward to 2014 (about 54 years post- independence) and we are faced with a politically unstable, corruption-ridden, economically under-developed and divided country with high incidence of violent crime mostly by organised criminal gangs some with strong political connections. In the past decade or two, these criminal gangs have metamorphosed into private/regional armies with more widespread membership across the society and have unleashed successful campaigns against the state like the militancy in the Niger Delta area of South South Nigeria and ongoing guerilla war in Northern Nigeria which is being perpetrated by a band of insurgents with local roots but suspected connection to international terror networks. In short, we are now faced with the possibility of Nigeria becoming a failed state. BUT HOW DID WE GET TO THIS POINT? Like most African states, except a few in Southern Africa, independence was gotten largely on the basis of intellectual rather than military struggles. At the forefront of Nigerias independence struggle were many patriots including Mr Herbert Olayinka Macaulay, Chief Anthony Enahoro, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Alhaji Tafawa Balewa, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, Sir Ahmadu Bello, etc. Again, it is important to underscore the point that independence was secured on the platform of intellectual rather than armed struggles and led by civilian elites rather than militant/ military men. Rapid development during the early 60s under a regional power structure kept the hope high that Nigeria will live up to the promise of being the giant of Africa. However, similar to most other African states that gained independence in the 60s, Nigerias new found freedom soon led to power tussle amongst the political gladiators that were at the forefront of the independence struggle. The then Western region soon became the hottest political battle ground especially with internal divisions summarised in the pro-Akintola vs pro-Awolowo groups. The political struggle became an excuse for the first major eruption to hit at Nigerias foundation - the Major Kaduna Nzeogwu led coup. This was the original sin. One may wonder what Nigeria would have become if this coup never took place. But why was this coup so significant? Nigerias unity was fragile at independence with each of the three major regions suspicious of the others as having a domination agenda. Nothing confirmed this fear of domination more than the Nzeogwu coup. Irrespective of the numerous attempts to document the motives behind the coup as altruistic and nationalistic, the truth is only God judges actions according to intention and thats because God can see through the intention. Humans always judge intention by the impact or manifestation of the action. The execution of the Nzeogwu coup communicated only one thing: there was an orchestrated plan by Igbos to dominate others within the Nigerian state. This was not just because of the casualty list which was mostly non-Igbos but even more significantly because of the occurrences after the coup: 1. The major beneficiary was an Igbo man: Gen Aguiyi Ironsi who became head of state. 2. There was no indication that the Ironsi-led administration intended to bring the coup plotters to justice - matter of fact, they were stowed away (detained) in the Eastern region where they were guaranteed safety. 3. To make matters even worse, Gen Ironsi dissolved the regional governance structure and instituted a unitary structure to put himself essentially in charge of all of Nigeria. Believe it or not, these sequenced events were enough confirmation of intention to dominate (by force)!!! What happened thereafter is well documented in the history book but wounds are yet to fully heal. We can talk about the events before the coup which were used as the reasons why they struck including thedestabilization of the then Western region through the instrumentality of the federal might. But the military was sure to strike anyway given the trend in most African states that gained independence within the period of our independence: the military elite usually used whatever excuse they can find to murder the heroes of independence struggle and forcefully take over power even when they had no preparation for political leadership. Even though the original sin of Nzeogwus coup ultimately led to a bloody civil war that further severed the cord of unity, the following actions contributed in no small measure to deepening the crisis we find ourselves today: 1) The over-fragmentation of the country through states creation, started by Gen Gowon and further promoted by Gen. Murtala/Obasanjo, Gen Babangida and Gen Abacha, which surely has achieved its sole aim: weaken the structures of the Nigerian federation so that it is easily governed from the centre. 2) An irresponsible (some will say roguish) political class that acts only in the interest of the cult-like power elites (comprising military and civilians from all ethnic and religious group in Nigeria) and at the expense of the citizens of country. 3) A largely unenlightened, financially-hungry and intellectually-lazy population that can be easily bought or confused with political sophistry weaved around ethnic or religious jingoism as peddled by the political class. 4) An elite class which has become an accomplice of the political class in the rape of the Nigerian masses driven by opportunism and the allure of fast, easy money. 5) The polarization of the previously united retired military elite cult based on the divergence of political interest leading to a contention for the political soul of the country on the platform of brigandage fronted by well armed (financially and militarily) proxies. On a positive note however, without this polarization, a coup would have been the likely outcome of the current state of confusion/violence. 6) The emergence of an entitlement culture in the current political dispensation based on the ill-advised politics of zoning elective offices which should otherwise be contested on a platform of ideological supremacy and connection with the larger population. The combination of these factors and their continued exploitation even at a faster pace to create political and financial advantage for a few political gladiators and their collaborating elite friends has brought us to the crossroads we now find ourselves: Nigeria must witness a revolution or it would inevitably go into dissolution. For the avoidance of doubt, the REVOLUTION Im talking about is more ideological and political rather than military-style violent revolution. We are at a point where the political actors must pulse to think. The current approach and the direction we are headed cannot bring any good to anyone. It is time to Think and Act differently!!! To summarize, the big problems that we must resolve via ideological revolution in order to avoid the inevitable dissolution thats ahead are the following: 1. The high-level of polarisation of the country and mutual hatred along ethnic and religious lines of divide (fuelled by legacy grudges as well as recent political issues) 2. Highly undeveloped political parties and electoral systems that undermines the legitimacy of electoral outcomes and also creates barrier to entry of high quality individuals into our political landscape 3. Faulty structure of the federation based on the over-fragmentation into too many states and local governments that are no more than (parasitic) consumption units rather than viable federating units that contribute to the wealth of the nation 4. High incidence of violent crime (armed robbery, murder, kidnapping, assassination, extra-judicial killing and terrorism) and growing number of militias/private armies and holders of small arms 5. Widespread and institutionalised corruption in both public and private sector 6. Weak culture of solidarity amongst the Nigerian masses and very weak citizens loyalty to the Nigerian state RECOMMENDED SOLUTIONS/ACTIONS: Issue 1: resolving the polarisation problem... Im sure it would not shock you if I said the central point of discussion when we talk about polarisation and the need for new thinking is the Presidency in 2015. And this is not just because of the existing power structure that over-empowers the central Federal Government but also because of the circumstances that led to the emergence of the incumbent. Thats why I believe the key to unlock a different future especially on the political front lies very much with having a change in leadership tone at that level. This change in leadership tone can be by a transformation of the current President, who is largely perceived based on his own actions/inactions to be sectional (South South/South East or Christian-focused depending on who is speaking), to a Nigerian President who takes the challenge of leadership very seriously. Otherwise, it can only happen through a leadership change in 2015. But why must there be change in 2015? The straight answer is that the current leadership tone, which has exploited the divisive politics of this country by either deliberately or unwittingly but openly using the raging ethnic and religious crises especially in the North to further polarise the country for political advantage, can only lead us to perdition. If the way to achieving the change of leadership tone is through leadership change in 2015, then this would be a necessary sacrifice in order to move the country forward and the beneficiaries of the status quo much be willing to make this sacrifice. The second sacrifice that must be made is that it would be unreasonable to expect that the change in leadershipwould produce a replacement from Core Northern Nigeria (or for that matter any other person selected on the basis of regional consideration). 2015 is our golden opportunity to have a Nigerian President - one that would win the mandate of Nigerians like Chief MKO Abiola did in 1993 and not one that will be a product of some phoney zoning arrangement. Core North (North West and North East) must sacrifice the ambition to gain power in 2015 because that would not only strengthen the polarization of the country but it would actually appear to be succumbing to the blackmail or threat of violence even if we cannot accuse any Northern politician of sponsoring violence the escalated violence in parts of the North. Along with this, we must kill the concept of zoning elective positions which creates unnecessary entitlement complex and perhaps encourage allegiance more to the zonal/regional interests rather than the entire country or state. To make this point more succinctly, Nigeria needs toproduce leaders at the national level with bolder vision,demonstrated capacity, better ethos than current actors and undiluted Nationalistic zeal. Some names that will come up include the likes of Mr Raji Fashola, Mr Donald Duke, Mr Adams Oshiomhole, and perhaps Mrs Oby Ezekwesili. Issue 2: reforming the political and electoral processes... Having said what must happen to the Presidency, we need to broaden the discussion to encompass the entire political system. The revolution that must happen to our political system are the following: 1. We only need two parties and we must work towards the emergence of a two-party system: this is quite important because multi-party system in Nigeria has always just created avenue for regional groupings to emerge and slowed our political integration. Our democracy would have been much stronger if only PDP and APP remained the registered parties in 1998. The emergence of AD created the avenue for the South West to return to regional/ethnic politics which unfortunately has also encouraged the emergence of APGA in the South East. A two- party system will quickly move us towards politics based on ideology and this was proven with the Babangida administrations SDP/NRC experiment. This should be enforced by setting the barriers for political party registration very high to force mergers much like Soludos banking consolidation actions. If this cannot be achieved before 2015 elections, it must be done within the first six months of the new administration. 2. Make laws to reform how political parties and candidates raise and utilise their funding: at the heart of the dysfunctional political system we operate today where corruption has become endemic is the unregulated process by which parties and candidates source for funding to conduct elections. Until this is reformed to place limits on the amount that an individual contributor can make and also compel full disclosure/audit of the financial activities of parties/candidates, we would continue to drift towards political merchants and criminal elements including terrorists being in control of our politics. Furthermore, if politicians have to raise money from the larger population, then they must connect with the population and that then begins to force the emergence of true leaders with connection with the people they seek to lead. 3. Zero tolerance for political violence: we must update the electoral laws to make it impossible for persons or groups indicted/ convicted of political violence from being able to ever participate in our political system. They cannot be registered members of any party, cannot be candidates and cannot contribute funding to political activities of any party or candidate. 4. By far the biggest change needed is the change in the mindset of the Nigerian voter. And I must admit this is also the most difficult change to make happen even if we had more time. Nigerian voters who are in the majority comprised of the 3FCs (Family, Friends, Fools and Crooks) must first and foremost think and act as Nigerians not as Ijaw, Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa, Northerner, Southerner, Christian or Muslim. A quick win towards making this happen is to prohibit divisive campaigns and introduce some structure into the political campaign processes that forces the candidates to talk to the electorate on their plans and how they will implement such plans. Political debates must be made compulsory for candidates and so must the manifesto of parties and candidates be documented and forwarded to INEC to make public. Another action that will help reform the mindset of Nigerians is to reform the voting and collation processes in order to minimise (if not eliminate) electoral frauds so that electoral outcomes will better reflect the will of the voters. 5. Separate legislative elections from executive elections: we need to separate the timing of the executive elections (presidency & governorship) and the legislative (national and state assembly) elections in order to enable greater attention to be paid to the quality of individuals that get voted into legislative positions. At present, legislative election is largely party-based and usually the ruling party (at federal or state level) also usually dominate the legislature. This has not helped us move forward in the area of improving the institutional structure for better governance which is directly linked to the quality of legislative representation. Issue 3: faulty structure of the federation... This is no quick win and really cannot happen until we move forward in the areas of development and reducing the current political tension. It should however be part of the agenda of the next administration. One way I that we can work ahead of any constitutional/legislative restructuring of the country is to redefine the structure of the federal government by having the ministry of infrastructure & integration (now works) have six regional ministries/ministers of states that will be responsible for driving infrastructure development & integration on a regional basis. This should of course be done after reducing the current number of ministries through mergers so that there is no increase in the total number of ministries/ ministers. These ministers of states will work with state governments within their region to facilitate regional infrastructure projects that can be done on a joint (federal, state and private sector collaboration) basis. Eventually this would set the stage for a constitutional/legislative restructuring of the federating structure into a three tier structure of Federal/Region(6)/State(36) with the scrapping of the existing 774 local governments. Legislative representation should only be at the Federal and regional levels. This would significantly reduce the cost of governance which unfortunately is one of the reasons we have a large portion of the revenues of the federation going to fund government workers and administrative structures. Issue 4: high incidence of violent crime... I have already clearly stated my position on the resolution of the violent insurgency in Northern Nigeria: combine rational force with limited-time conditional amnesty in order to defeat the core elements and leaders of the insurgency. Then institute a broad-based programme for addressing the prevalence of violence on a national basis. This should be based on the DDR (Demilitarisation, Disarmament, and Reintegration) principle where hardcore elements are removed by military or police action and then incentives are introduced to recover arms that are currently in the wrong hands akin to the way the Niger Delta militants were made to lay down their arms. Finally, militants are supported to reintegrate with normal society through re-training/skilling after proper enumeration and (biometric) documentation. Issue 5: endemic corruption... First and foremost, we must change the leadership tone. If the leaders accept or even celebrate corruption (as our national honours list confirm), then we have no hope of reducing corruption to an acceptable level. We need leaders who will be ashamed to be mentioned or linked to corruption. We need leaders who will resign and stay away from the limelight once their integrity is stained. But this would not just happen because we hope for it. It would only happen if we strengthen the institutions that will make leaders behave this way. No one should have immunity from criminal prosecution and key institutions like the judiciary, uniformed services, EFCC, etc should be rid of politicization and corruption first if we would stand any chance of fighting corruption. Okay, I get this is now looking like a chicken-and-egg situation. Well, the first step is to ensure we get a President with the best anti-corruption credential (minimal corruption-tolerance) in 2015. This would set the right leadership tone and also create the right environment for the institution building/ strengthening needed for sustainable improvement of our anti-corruption performance. Issue 6: weak national solidarity... This is another chicken-and-egg debacle: is it good citizenship that builds great nations or great nations that inspire good citizenship. Well, the usual sequence is that a good citizen in the mold of a leader inspires the rest of the citizenry and mobilize them for national development and solidarity. And over time, the positive outcome of such inspirational leadership leads to the entrenchment of a culture of national patriotism, solidarity and voluntary contribution. You will say this is another pointer to why 2015 presidency is number 1 on the agenda. Yes, thats the starting point and if we dont get it right we may as well resign to a fate of Nigeria becoming a failed state. IN SUMMARY 2015 is our last chance to make Nigeria work and it would not work on the basis of our legacy attitudes which has been characterized by suboptimal compromises. We need a revolution of the mind, a revolution in the political space that will lead to the emergence of a Nigerian President who can inspire and rally us towards national development in 2015. We need the President to be nationalistic and execution focused and to focus on the key objectives which a few political thinkers have summarized in the past as the 3IS (Infrastructure, Institution, Integration and Security). Most importantly, we need the President to be more of a leader than a politician with the ability to begin the healing process that will move us towards national solidarity. If we cant make this ideological revolution happen, we may as well go back to our normal routine of prayers and hope that our inevitable dissolution will be bloodless.
Posted on: Mon, 07 Jul 2014 06:25:14 +0000
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