OK...it has begun. A large cluster of thunderstorms has fully developed in NE New Mexico and moving southeast into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Large hail and damaging winds and a brief tornado spinup will be likely as it moves across the high plains. There are two scenarios that will be possible for north Texas: 1) The storms should stay strong at least until Abilene. Then they will begin to come under the influence of the north Texas cap, falling down leaving pathetically small amounts for DFW as they collapse. or.... 2) There could be so many storms in this cluster that an MCV may be created. An MCV - Mesoscale Convective Vortex - is just a fancy schmancy name for a small but intense upper-level low that forms as a result of the large amount of heat released into the atmosphere by numerous storms that are stuck together. It is this MCV which should be able to sustain these storms and help weaken our ever-present cap and allow them to push in by morning. I am actually leaning toward the latter. Even though our cap is very strong, an MCV should be able to weaken it enough to allow at least some of the storms to survive.
Posted on: Wed, 05 Jun 2013 21:43:53 +0000
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