One election is neither trend nor mandate. But thats what people say when they have no sense of the history or the mechanics. A president gets elected and usually carries a bunch of new senators with him. Six years later, those seats are the most vulnerable. Every two-term president has lost senate seats in the sixth year midterm. Thats a historical truth, its also part of the mechanics of the system. This was predictable in 2008. The long-term trends to look at are demographics (bad for republicans, good for democrats), the economy (a good economy is good for the party that holds the white house -- if theyll campaign on it), and the voting patterns of mid-terms v. presidential elections. The republicans have two years to demonstrate that they can win the hearts and minds of the electorate. Based on the evidence of the past two years, they have no idea who the electorate is. You win the white house by campaigning to the middle. One-third will always vote republican, one-third will always vote democratic. You win the election by capturing the swing votes in the middle -- and too often, these are the least educated, least informed, and least involved. (Thats another long essay, but the short version is that if by the time of the second or third debate, youre still undecided, you still have no idea whats at stake, youre not paying attention.) Reagan, Clinton, and Obama all won the white house by campaigning to the center and winning the swing votes. The republicans have pretty much abandoned the center and are unlikely to recapture it any time soon. And...the republican pattern has always been to veer harder to the right out of the mistaken belief that they only lose elections when they havent been conservative enough. Meanwhlie -- after all is said and done, there are logistics at work that are critical to success. The ground game, registration and get-out-the-vote efforts are at the top of the list. Also, knowing which states are in play and how to campaign to those states. And finally, campaigning on the right issues. The best issue to campaign on is always the economy. Jobs. Everyone relates to that. One other factor -- the party that presents itself as most optimistic about the future tends to win the hearts and souls of the electorate. You can win an election with fear and hatred, but you cant build a long-term base on that. People get exhausted from fear and hatred -- but they can always be reinspired. Its just that inspiration is harder to do than hatred. And ... if Hillary Clinton runs, she will run a very optimistic campaign. She will also have some of the best campaigners in the world on her side. The republicans have no one in the same class as her. So...while the 2016 election is not a slam-dunk, it will be a much more uphill climb for the repubs.
Posted on: Sat, 08 Nov 2014 04:13:29 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015