Possible Strong Autumn Storm Late Sunday Into Monday High Winds and Heavy Rain Alert risk period: 27/10/13 18:00 until 28/10/13 23:59 Alert details: Confidence is increasing from weather model output that an intense depression could move northeast across parts of England and Wales late Sunday and into Monday morning, bringing a spell of exceptionally strong winds to southern Britain, along with heavy rain which may cause flooding. A frontal wave is forecast to develop mid-North Atlantic on Sunday, as an upper trough and strong 180 mph jet stream moving ESE from NE Canada interact with warm moist air of tropical origin to the south of the frontal zone. A depression looks to form in this frontal wave, which looks to rapidly deepen as it approaches and moves northeast across the country late on Sunday and early Monday. Its still too early to be certain over the exact track, timing and intensity of this depression. And theres the chance that the low will take a more southerly track missing Britain altogether, bringing the strongest winds to the near continent. However, most recent runs from the American GFS and European ECMWF weather models have suggested that the centre of low is likely to cross England and Wales, with strong to exceptionally strong winds on the southern and western flanks. At the moment, models are suggesting the potential for winds gusts in excess of 70 mph across southern Britain, perhaps in excess of 80 mph on exposed coasts. Therefore, the public and authorities are advised to prepare for the risk of falling trees, damage to properties, disruption to transport and power supplies, along with flooding. Given the uncertainty over the track, timing and intensity of the low, this watch maybe updated or upgraded to an alert over the next few days.
Posted on: Thu, 24 Oct 2013 17:12:02 +0000
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