:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2014 Dec 20 0900 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 19 December follow. Solar flux 216 and estimated planetary A-index 8. The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 20 December was 2. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected. :Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2014 Dec 20 1200 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 19 December follow. Solar flux 216 and estimated planetary A-index 8. The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 20 December was 2. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected. Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2014 Dec 20 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels during the period as Region 2242 (S18W36, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1/3b flare at 20/0028 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep (900 km/s), 2300 sfu Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) directed off the SW limb. We are currently waiting on further SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery to determine if there is an Earth-directed component to the CME. Penumbral area within the intermediate area of Region 2242 appeared to be separating which separated the delta regions within the group. Region 2241 (S10W13, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was relatively stable and quiet over the period, however it retains a transverse delta within its trailing spots. Flux emergence and growth was observed in new Region 2244 (S05E45, Cao/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater) for the next three days (20-22 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242 remain large and magnetically complex. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (20-22 Dec). There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the potential for significant flare activity from Regions 2241 or 2242. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels through the period. There are currently no signs of the impending arrival of the 17 Dec CME as of the time of this report. Solar wind speeds ranged from 323 km/s to 413 km/s with the total field relatively steady near 6 nT. The Bz component was variable between +/- 6 nT, while the phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one and through the rest of the period (20-22 Dec) as a pair of CMEs are expected to impact the geomagnetic field. The first is a potential glancing blow from the 17 Dec CME, expected late on day one (20 Dec). Another CME, from 18 Dec, is expected by midday on day two (21 Dec). Solar wind speeds reaching the 650-750 km/s range are estimated with the arrival of the 18 Dec CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expecting to continue at mostly quiet conditions until the latter half of the UTC day on day one (20 Dec) when a glancing blow from the 17 Dec CME is expected to become geoeffective. Unsettled to active periods with a chance for minor storm periods (G1-Minor) is expected to dominate through early on day two (21 Dec). By approximately midday on day two, another CME, from 18 Dec, is expected to cause minor to major storming (G1-G2, Minor-Moderate) and continue through early on day three (22 Dec). Unsettled to active periods are expected to persist through the majority of day three. :Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2014 Dec 20 1500 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 19 December follow. Solar flux 216 and estimated planetary A-index 8. The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 20 December was 2. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Posted on: Sat, 20 Dec 2014 17:38:42 +0000
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