RDP CONVENTION: WHAT FIGURES MAY SAY: MY ANALYSIS I say, comrades, the other day human rights defender, Shitefa sha Mvula, quoting RDP Regional Secretary, Imms ya Shikongo, released these interesting figures about the rat race for RDP presidency: 90 percent of all members of RDP National Executive Committee (NEC) supports RDP Information Secretary Jeremiah Nambinga, while 70 percent of RDP Central Committee (CC), 50 percent of all RDP regional secretaries and 40 percent of regional delegates are said to be behind Kandy Nehova, RDP International Relations Secretary. These figures show little, if any, significant support base for RDP President Hidipo Hamutenya. Are all these figures reliable? Maybe, maybe not! But here is what my analysis indicates. My analysis is based on the information that I have been gathering by speaking to various RDP members and leaders countrywide as well as well from what has been publicly reported in the print and electronic media as well as in Social Media (“Book Face” in particular). Here is my analysis: I tend to agree with Imms ya Shikongo, who is RDP Regional Secretary for Omusati, in so far as substantial support for Jerry Nambinga in NEC is concerned. I am saying this because the majority of NEC members were in favor of that unconstitutional suspension of Kandy Nenhova, Mirjam Hamutenya and Peter Naholo several months ago, while the majority of the youth was clearly against that suspension. This strongly suggests that the majority of the youth were behind Kandy Nehova and his two other co-suspendees at the time. However, things might have changed now if the events at that highly contentious RDP Youth League convention at Keetmanshoop were taken as a pointer. This then could suggest that the current support of the youth might have split now between Kandy Nehova and Jeremiah Nambinga, although I still believe that the majority of the youth supports Nehova, if the October 12 2013 launch of his presidential campaign were anything to go by. RDP President HH might be the one who is now enjoying less support among the youth. This is so because both Nambinga and Nehova are challenging HH for RDP Presidency and are blaming him for the wrongs that have been occurring in the organization since November 2007. The Nambinga camp is especially said to be fuming at allegations that HH is blaming them for “misleading” him. My information strongly suggests that HH camp managed to convince many or perhaps even most of the delegates in the former Ovamboland that he is the only one who can beat Hage Geingob (a wishful thinking though) in the next national presidential elections. Based on this information, I would suggest that HH has gained considerable support in the former Ovamboland following his recent whirlwind visit there. Nevertheless, I would put HH’s support, liberally, at not more than 60 percent in the conservative former Ovamboland as a whole. This then also means that Nambinga and Nehova still take away 40 percent of the overall “Ovamboland” support. Nonetheless, my information strongly suggests that Nehova will take close to 90 percent of the Omusati vote. Let us come to the other regions outside of Ovamboland where large concentrations of ethnic Ovambos are found. These are only Erongo and Khomas, where HH’s support might be considerable. So, again liberally, I would give 50 percent support for HH in Erongo and Khomas regions, each. Nambinga and Nehova would carry the rest! I do not foresee any support, at all, for HH coming from the Caprivi region (now renamed “Zambezi”). This is so because virtually all the Caprivi support goes to Nehova and Nambinga (with Nehova in the lead by at least 60 percent). Similarly, I do not foresee any support, at all, for HH coming from the Kavango region either. The information at my disposal strongly suggests that Nehova has a substantial lead there of close to 90, if not more, percent! As for the Kunene Region, my information strongly suggests that Nehova is in substantial lead there with at least 80 percent! The same applies to Otjozondjupa Region (at least 80 percent for Nehova). My information suggests that Nambinga has a substantial lead in Omaheke (perhaps 60 percent, while the rest (40 percent) goes to Nehova). As for the Karas (now //Karas) and Hardap regions, my analysis strongly suggests that Nehova and Nambinga have substantial support there. I believe that Nehova is leading with at least 80 and 60 percent there, respectively. Now in the very unlikely event that HH scores a slight lead in the first round at this weekend’s Ramatex Convention, there will be very little chance, if any, for him (HH) to survive the second round. This is so because there is a very strong possibility (based on my intelligence information) that Nambinga’s supporters would vote for Nehova while the reverse is also true! Both Nambinga and Nehova agree that HH must go! Now RDP people please don’t shoot me for my opinions. I am an independent person. I am not a member of your party, or any other political party for that matter!
Posted on: Fri, 08 Nov 2013 16:09:07 +0000
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