Raila Odinga and ICC are two lightening rods that hold Jubilee together. Without them, the coalition has nothing else to hold on. A few weeks ago, intense scavenging had commenced especially in Rift Valley after the transfer of Rugut. An issue that triggered the rise of Alfred Keter and Isaac Ruto .Predictably, all the wars happened in the absence of Raila and ICC cases going on recess. Immediately Raila Jetted into the country, everything else was muted. Apart from the ICC, Raila Odinga is the alternative best catalyst for any politician wishing to retain or ascend to power. Without him, Uhuruto would not be. Without him, Kibaki would not have made it. If Raila kept quiet for 8 months. We would not have Jubilee as it is by December. I can predict with certainty, If Raila and ICC goes; Jubilee coalition would split. Ruto and Uhuru would be on separate ballot papers in 2017. However, as long as he continues with his meetings, rallies, protests and will vie in 2017, Jubilee will remain intact and will win in 2017. The aggressive strategy the former PM is using currently is a replay of what he has done in the past. It revolves around reform messages and protest behaviors; unfortunately it helps his competitors to win.It has not worked for him in the past.Not in the future. Like corruption or insecurity, Raila is a campaign issue in every election.His moves aromatizes politics in this country.He is the only guy who can have a mammoth rally in an instant.Without him,other politicians will be bored to death.Including the President and his deputy. To me, he should slow down, keep quiet for the next one and a half years and strategize underground. Allow Jubilee to self scavenge/cannibalize itself and only emerge after the goose is cooked. Unfortunately, it will not happen. Reason-bad advisors and weak strategists.
Posted on: Mon, 30 Jun 2014 08:20:10 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015