Reckless by Name, Reckless by Nature The defection of Tory MP, Mark Reckless, to UKIP has hammered the final nail into the coffin of any real so-called Devo-Max for Scotland from this Westminster government. The Conservatives will now be zoning in on themselves and contemplating how to save their own skins, especially in light of Lord Ashcrofts poll released today (28/09) which shows Labour on target for a majority in May 2015 due to the defection of Tory supporters to anti-EU UKIP and the subsequent loss of 24 key seats. The pressure will now be on from the backbenches to make an electoral pact with UKIP as mooted only a few short weeks ago. As has been repeatedly pointed out from this writer, David Cameron does not lead the Conservative Party. No. Instead he is chivvied along from behind by a blue wedge of Euro-sceptic Middle England backbenchers who really dont care what the leadership does as long as power is retained and their jobs are safe. Nigel Farage will hoot a bit more, David Cameron will posture at conference, but the truth is that a deal will be done behind closed doors. The Tories and UKIP will make a pact which guarantees Farage and his cronies a handful of seats in Parliament and, crucially, a couple of places on Cabinet. UKIP will not oppose the Conservatives across most of the country, UKIP will be not be opposed by the Tories in half a dozen or so seats that they might well be guaranteed to win anyway and probably the only constituencies which will feature both parties on the same ballot paper will be Labour seats where it might be tactically useful to have more choices on the ballot. The clever money suggests that Farage will take the Cabinet seat vacated by Nick Clegg as Deputy PM and parachute himself into the frontline of despatch box trench warfare. And that also makes an In-Out referendum on the UK’s EU future an absolute certainty as that will be the first point on any agreement document. Let’s be frank. It doesn’t suit UKIP for Labour to win the 2015 General Election, as they will not be able to extract anything meaningful from that party. Instead it makes immense electoral sense to hug the Conservatives close and whisper sweet electoral nothings in their ear. The Tories are already twisting in the wind as the defectors look likely to land UKIP their first seats in the House of Commons very shortly. The backbenches are looking wistfully at Nigel Farage and hoping beyond hope that he will put David Cameron on his dance card. This is all extremely dire news for Scotland as if the Conservatives can harness the UKIP vote then we could be looking at a landslide electoral victory for the new Blue-Purple Coalition. The combined Tory-UKIP vote could easily top 40% and even nudge 45%. If ever there were a government that Scotland wouldnt have voted for it will be that one!
Posted on: Sun, 28 Sep 2014 16:23:10 +0000
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