Remember my reservation I had for the strong clipper snow I talked about in the forecast last night just below here? Its now whats trending in our forecast. As the surface low hits the Appalachian Mountains, it dissipates, then re-forms on the other side. Weve got a fancy weather term for this - lee side cyclogenesis. The latest forecasts could also potentially bring us an even bigger region wide storm too! Data suggests now the formation of the lee side low off the North Carolina Coast and a coastal storm moving NE to New England. If the low strengthens rapidly, then a possibly bigger precip shield cold be developed around the coastal low putting down more snow in the region. I still have problems with that, and still think this scenario kind of skips the D.C. region out of snow. As the original low moves into the Appalachians and fades, so will the associated precip shield. Thats why I think NWS forecasts for the watch in where they state 4-6 possible puts too much weight into the existing precip shield in a weakening low. Im not buying 4-6 forecast by the short range ensemble forecasts of the 18z NAM (North American Model - USA) solution dropping 0.50 in that area by Monday night. Also, the lee-side low develops too close to the region, so the deformation zone snow (the wrap-around precip) doesnt get fully defined until moving closer to New England and out of the Mid-Atlantic, therefore keeping the D.C. immediate region out of heavier snow, and putting more snow over the Eastern Shore and New England where a stronger, deeper low can develop and produce a larger precip shield. If you are to forecast based upon GFS (Global Forecast System Model - USA) and ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Forecasts) the light steady snow might produce 1-3 but over the course of 18 hours beginning Sunday night late and ending Monday night. Where I stand? Im not buying into a lot of snow at this time, based upon the discussion in the previous 2 paragraphs. Well need to see how forecasts resolve in the 0z runs tonight, and the 12z runs tomorrow morning, and we SHOULD have a clearer picture of whats to come! Stay connected! Devon
Posted on: Sat, 24 Jan 2015 21:52:01 +0000
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