**SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON & EVENING SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS** WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS WEEKEND & THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS NY & PA, ALONG WITH HUMID & TROPICALLY WARM CONDITIONS: **AN AMPLIFIED/ ELONGATED UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND & EJECT A WEAK/ SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN/ CENTRAL, NY THIS AFTERNOON & AS DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE THROUGH BROKEN CLOUDS...AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ENERGY VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/ KG`S, ALONG WITH SOME LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AS COOLER/ DRYER AIR ALOFT MIXES THROUGH THE MID- LEVELS TO CREATE MORE SHOWERS & EMBEDDED T-STORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS YESTERDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS WHICH WILL LIKELY RECEIVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT IN A FEW AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS, BUT NOT AS HEIGHTENED AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. **THE SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORMS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING & AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM AGAIN IN SOME PLACES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM GENERALLY 55 TO 60. ***ON SUNDAY...OUR EYES WILL TURN TO THE EAST COAST, AS A STRENGTHENING/ BROAD WARM UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TAKES PLACE IN WHICH WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE & ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD FROM ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY TO INTERIOR NEW JERSEY/ PHILADELPHIA AREA BY EARLY EVENING. A RATHER STRONG SURGE OF DEEP- LAYERED SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN & CENTRAL, PA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANOTHER **FLASH FLOODING THREAT** SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS & T-STORMS COULD PUSH NORTHWEST ALONG THE RETROGRADING WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM EAST/ CENTRAL, PA TO THE EAST/ CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY BY LATE SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY FROM CENTRAL, PA TO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER IN WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN & EMBEDDED T-STORMS RIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. IF THIS EMERGES...THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THEY SWELL TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY NEXT WEEK** I WILL HAVE MORE DETAILED UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION LATER IN THE WEEKEND. **FROM** STEVE MATTISON...VOLUNTEER SKYWARN SPOTTER FOR THE NWS.
Posted on: Sat, 29 Jun 2013 13:21:20 +0000
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