SHARED FROM: Oz Cyclone Chasers: Good evening to everyone out - TopicsExpress

SHARED FROM: Oz Cyclone Chasers: Good evening to everyone out there. Been a little while since we have updated you all on what is happening with the WA tropical low and possible future developments over the GOC and Coral Sea. To begin with we will look at the WA system. It is currently fairly close to the NW coast near Derby. It is slowly deepening as the monsoonal flow to its north continues to strengthen. Model guidance has it fairly slow moving over the next couple of days and it would seem increasing unlikely that it will move out into open water for a sufficient amount of time (if at all) for it to intensify into a cyclone, however it is yet to be discounted completely. From Friday it gets picked up by a trough system and moves fairly swiftly SEwards. The big story to come out of this will be the rainfall amounts accumulating over the Kimberly of WA and then spreading down through the interior of the country. Attached is an image of the rainfall forecast for the next 8 days. Certainly plenty of pretty colours involved there! The next item on the agenda is the increasing monsoonal flow and tropical activity forecast for the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and the Northern Coral Sea. There has been conflicting model guidance as to what may come of this. All that is guaranteed is the amount of thunderstorm activity will increase and the chances of low pressure development also increases. We have noticed a few pages post up images of individual model runs which show a low or cyclone moving south close to the northern and central Queensland coast next week. We will not add to the hype as it is far too early to tell just when and where circulations may form and we view this scenario with low confidence. A scenario which is being viewed with slightly higher confidence involves a disturbance further north towards the Cape and Northern Coral Sea (movements yet to be determined) and a disturbance towards Vanuatu (movements more likely to be S-SE). Oz Cyclone Chasers

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