.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER NORTH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA. THE FORECAST TODAY IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS A RESULT OF THESE TWO FEATURES. THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS SENT OUT SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SHOULD WORK INTO NRN ARKANSAS BY MID MORNING. THE 4KM WRF AND ALSO THE RAPID REFRESH RUC SUGGEST THESE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...UPON WHICH THE MORE COARSE MODELS SUGGEST WILL BE MORE DOMINANT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE FORMER...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER /WE ARE TALKING ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES HERE/ AFTERNOON HIGHS UP NORTH THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...AND PLAYED RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ISOLD TO SCT VARIETY INSTEAD OF CONVECTION BEING TIED TO THE FRONT. THAT SAID...DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE EXTENDED. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE STATE BY THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY LATE THURSDAY. LEFT SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS. THERE IS SOME QPF SIGNAL IN NUMERICAL MODELS BOTH DAYS IN THOSE REGIONS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL DOWN MUCH IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NOT REACH 90 DEGREES. HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS ARKANSAS SO EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE...THERE WILL BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
Posted on: Wed, 10 Jul 2013 10:58:57 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015