// SHREE / Technical Research Report For 23rd Sept to Sept to 27th Sept2013 WORLD INDICES US INDICES DOWJONES : After making a new high of 15709, it has retraced back inside the Monthly trading range as seen on the monthly chart it has touched the upper trend line which is at 15709 and has corrected sharply last Friday. On weekly chart it has formed a gravestone doji this is a concern and indicate that the high made at 15709 will act as a strong resistance on the upside. Hence in the coming week it will consolidate in trading range and trade with high volatility and choppiness Bias : Consolidation / break out above 15709.........16250 Trading range : 15709 ....... 16000 15129 / 15050 Note : The 12dmawkly and mbb wkly is at 15210 . NASDAQ : On weekly chart is has formed a expanding formation and has formed a doji star like candle at the top confirmation is awaited.3712 is a key level to watch out for , currently trading in a upward sloping channel. There is a big divergence on the chart and macd is dangerously placed on the weekly chart. Bias : Caution Trading Range : 3862 3712......3652 Note : 12dmakly is at 3632CBOE : Currently trapped in a downward trading range , will continue to slide and remain weak , may only show some bounce Bias : Weak Trading Range : 14.68 12.15 .....11.10 ....9 If closes below 12.10 then a rally will start in the US markets. US DOLLAR INDEX : Bias : Weak Trading range : 81.35 79 Currently it has closed below all the major moving averages this is a negative sign, A close 78.91 will pull it further down , 81.67 is the weekly 12dma. NOTE : The S&P100 has a big divergence on the chart indicating major correction to happen in future when ever the top is confirmed. European Indices CAC : On weekly chart it has formed a expanding formation and is likely to test the trend line at 4345 / 4352, it is trading at a new highs , over all the chart is positive , there is a divergence getting formed which will get matured later. Bias : Positive Trading Range : 4352 4123 / 4090 DAX : It is trading in a broad upward sloping channel and has given a break out from the consolidation and it is likely to get more positive above 8771 and can test the upper band of the channel at 9100 / 9245 Bias : Cautiously Positive Trading Range : 8805 / 9100 / 9245 8486 / 8335 FTSE : It is weakest among the European indices Currently it is trapped in a symmetrical triangle and a directional break out is awaited from this pattern above 6696 can test all time high 6876 and above. Bias : Directional Break out awaited / Mildly positive Trading Range : 6696 / 6876 6503 / 6425 ASIAN INDICES Heng Sheng : It has formed a major higher high on the weekly chart indicating a trend reversal and in coming day it will form a major Higher low in the next down move. Now it is likely to face strong resistance at 2864 , here the major downward sloping trend line is placed, all the major indicators are positive , it has formed a big cup & handle pattern this is a very bullish sign . if it breaks out of this pattern then IT WILL START A BLOW OUT RALLY and take it higher then 24988 TOWARDS 26000 / 27500 and this cannot be ruled out. On daily basis it can retrace some what Bias : Positive Trading range : 63864 .... 23955 / 24430 22987 SHANGHAI : Currently it is trading inside the Symmetrical triangle and may continue to trade within the range the 100dma wkly at 2305 is a strong resistance on the upside Bias : Positive Trading Range : 2305 2149 NIKKIE : Over all it is positive and needs to close above 14595 to start the rally .........15942 Trading Range : 145595 ........... 15500 13990 NIFTY Nifty on weekly chart has closed above the major downward sloping trend line starting from 6229 dated 24thmay 2013 this is a very positive sign and it has formed a higher high i.e higher high above the previous lower high which was at 6094 this is a trend reversal signal and it suggest that a higher low will be formed around the two gap areas near 5725 / 5689 and 5552 / 5461( If it at all comes to this level in coming week ). The Nifty On weekly chart is trading in a broad Long term Upward Sloping channel and this channel has a upper limit set at 6425 / 6579 which will be tested on the upside and scale much higher in coming months when Nifty breaks out and closes above 6357. On daily chart it has formed a broad upward sloping channel and within it there is a trend line in the middle where the Nifty has taken support and it is likely to test the 12dmadaily at 5843 on the down side and can fill the gap at 5725 where the 50dmadaily is placed and find support around 5725 / 5689 in coming weeks. Few Observations that indicate Bullishness ( medium term) 1) It has closed above the major downward sloping trend line 2) It has formed a higher high 3) There is a broad upward sloping channel within which the nifty is trading , the upper limit targets are set at 6480 / 6579 4) Weekly parabolic is positive 5) On weekly chart it has closed above all the major moving averages 6) The UBB is @ 6234 which is a pending target 7) Weekly macd has turned positive The above signals are for levels to come in near future and suggest that THE UNDERTONE IS POSITIVE AND IT IS BUY ON DIPS MARKET NOTE Nifty can only turn positive in the short term if is closes above 6143 and then it will give a break out above the previous all time high until then will trade with choppiness high volatility correct a little and consolidate and form a higher low. SUPPORT : 5932 / 5843 ( 12dmadly) / 5798 / 5725 ( 50dma dly , dlymbb and 12dmaMnthly) Resistance : 6041 / 6105 and 6143. Bias : Weak / Consolidation Trading range : 6143 ....... 6224 5725 Trades for Nifty 1) Sell / Sell on rise with stop of 6143 targets 5932 .... 5843 / 5798....... 5725 2) Buy puts of 5900 with above targets 3) Buy Nifty once near 5725 / 5689 4) Buy calls once near 5725 / 5689 target 5932 5) Accumulate nifty in correction if it has to go below 5689 target 5932 6) Buy with stop of 5932 target 6143 . Bank Nifty Bank Nifty has corrected sharply after testing the 200dma , and is likely to test the 12dma at 10278 on the downside and below it can slide further down to levels of 9979 / 9720, It can only turn Positive above the 200dma at 11107 un till then will consolidate in a broad trading range. Bank Nifty has Turned weak but not Negative, and is expected to bounce back after forming a higher low . Retracement Levels are : 76.6% ...12327 / 50% . .. 10869 / 38.2% ... 10268 and 23.6% ....9524 Support : 10409 / 10235 (12dma& 50dma) / 9916 / 9768(mbb) and 9663 Trades for Bank Nifty 1) Sell / Sell on rise with strict stop of 11107 and targets of 10409 / 10235 (weaker below it) ......9938 / 9705 ...9663 2) Buy puts of 10200 with above targets 3) Accumulate in correction if it trades below 9663 between 9238 / 8900 4) Buy above 11250 target 11650 stop of 11107 5) Buy with stop of 10235 target 11107. Auto index : Positive Commodities Index : Positive FMGC : Positive Metals : Caution can correct Pharma: Positive above 7369 only Psubank : Weekly Macd has turned positive Realty : Negative below 142.90 India Vix : weak and can only get positive above 28.33 below 23.55 will test 20.50 Adanient : Buy higher call will test 161 / 165 , high risk high gain Adaniport : Risky trade buy with strict stop of 135 can test 145.50 / 149.85 Albk : Buy on dips in between 80 / 76 target 89 / 95 investment / positional trade or Sell on rise with stop of 87.20 target 80 / 76.50 Ashokleyland : buy with target of 15.65 Auropharma : buy on dips / or buy above 195.50 break out above 202.55 INVRTD H&S targets 232 / 245 Bhartiairtel : Buy Higher calls only break out above 359 ..... will test 373 ...... 395 ChambalFert : Punting call Buy higher call will test 41 and above in days to come. Lupin : Buy with target of 895 break out above 908 can start a rally above and test 980 and above stop at 851.85 and 836 Rpower : risky trade buy higher call can test 76.60 / 81 Relinfra : Risky trade buy on dips between 405 / 395 with targets of 432 stop at 380 Tatachem : Buy on dips or buyb above 261 can test 275 can stretch to 290 stop at 253 Mid Cap Bajajcorp : Investment / positional trade Buy with target of 308 / 325 / 355 and above break out above 282. Excel Corp : Investment only , break out above 252.15 target 321 and above and can trade higher then previous high. Gmdc : Positional trade / investment will test 110 / 125 or buy above 97.25 with above targets. Jmfinancial : Investment term, 1st target 31.25 breakout above it will stretch to 38 / 43 / 51 and will get tripled in long term. Pcjewllers :Pure Punting buy with target of 103.85 / 106.50 can stretch to 113.85 break out above 97.85 and stop at 94.85.
Posted on: Sun, 22 Sep 2013 13:05:07 +0000
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