// SHREE / Technical Research Report For 30th Sept to 4thth Oct 2013 WORLD INDICES US INDICES DOWJONES :On Monthly chart it has formed a congestion at the top and it has been trading in this range 15650 / 14650 since last six months , and on Weekly chart it is taking support at the upward sloping trend line and has closed at the 12dma / mbb which is at 15165 and then next important support below it at 15100 ( 100dma) a close below will pull it downwards to 14850, it is likely to form a bearish H&S pattern in coming weeks . Bias : Weak Trading Range : 15349( can only improve above 15539) 14850 ( below ..... will test 14571) NASDAQ : There is a big divergence getting formed on the chart which is likely to get matured soon, the daily macd is dangerously placed , it will test the 12dmawkly at 3655 and mbbwkly 3581wich will get tested on the downside in coming days . Bias : Caution Trading : 3815 3742 ....3719 ..3665 CBOE : Since last few months it has been trading in a broad range and is in process of forming a rounding bottom and it is halfway through indicate that volatility would increase as days go by , it will improve further and get positive above 16.85 and test 18.85 ....19.25 a negative for the Us Indices. Bias : Positive Trading Range : 19.25 14.25 US DOLLAR INDEX : Likely to show some bounce as it has currently taken support at the important 100dmawkly and the upward trend line. Bias : Positive Trading Range : 81.62 / 82.55(mbb) 80.11 EUROPEAN INDICES CAC : A close below 4163 will indicate weakness and a close below 4131 will pull it further downwards to 4056 and lower. Bias : Neutral Trading Range : 4285 4056 DAX : A close below 8611 will be a negative sign and will test 8500 and 8421 on the downside. Bias : Weak Trading Range : 8745 8421 FTSE : Weakest of the European indices will slide further once below 6485 and will test 6372 on the downside. Bias : Weak Trading Range : 6558 6372 ASIAN INDICES HENH SENG : It is trading in a upward sloping channel on weekly chart and has closed lower then the previous week and has also formed a lower low then the previous week this is a sign of weakness , it will consolidate and test the 12dmawkly 22535 on the downside . It is in a process of forming big inverted H&S which will get formed in the coming weeks, it has already formed a major higher high and will form a higher low in the correction. Bias : Weak / Consolidation In the coming week it will trade within a range of 23555 / 23721 22535(12dmawkly) SHANGHAI : Currently Trapped in a trading range and will continue to trade range bound as it has formed gravestone doji candle indicating resistance at the highs . Bias : Consolidation / Rangebound Trading Range : 2270 ( Break out above 2315.....2485) 2058 NIKKIE : Positive above 14955 .......15385 ....15850 Macd wkly is about to turn positive Bias : Positive Trading Range : 15385 14385 NIFTY Nifty on weekly chart has closed outside the narrow upward sloping channel and has taken support at wklymbb , The 12dma, mbb, and 50dma(all wkly) are placed in between 5811 and 5721 and they will get tested one by one on the downside. On daily chart nifty has closed below the important 12dma this is a negative sign and indicate that it will test 5721 and fill the 1st down side gap and find support around 5689 / 5658 in the coming week. Nifty has formed a major higher high ( higher then previous lower high which was made at 6100 ) indicate that it is likely to form a higher low in the correction around 5450 / 5560 and fill the 2nd down side gap which may get formed later in coming weeks and restart the Upmove. Support : 5811....5767 ....5725 ...... 5689 ... 5658 Resistance : 5910 ... 5932 Bias : Weak Trading Range : 5910 / 5932 ( can only improve above 5932) 5725 / 5689 / 5658 Hence in the coming week nifty will trade with weakness and high volatility and will witness selling pressure at the highs. NOTE : Nifty may form a Inverted H&S in near future if it does not close below 5450 odd levels. Trades for Nifty 1) Sell / Sell on rise with targets of 5725 / 5689 / 5658 with strict stop of 5915 2) Buy 5900 Puts with above targets 3) Buy 5800 Puts with above targets 4) Buy above 5915 target 5932 ..... 6003 stop at 5865 5) Buy Calls / Nifty once near 5689 / 5658 with 5865 as target. BANK NIFTY : Has closed below the 12dma / 50dma and mbb this is a negative sign and indicate further weakness. Support : 9766 / 9407 / 9253 / 8950 Resistance : 10005 / 10132 Trades for Bank Nifty 1) Sell / sell on rise with targets of 9766 / 9407 and 9253 with stop of 10005 or 10131 2) Buy 9900 / 9800 Puts with above targets 3) Accumulate around 9250 / 8950 with 9900 as target. Auto Index : Negative below 4709 Commodities index : range bound Consumption Index : range bound Energy : Weak Fmgc : range bound Infra : Weak Media : may turn positive Metal : can turn negative Psubank : Weak Realty : Weak INDIA VIX : may show some bounce MidCap : can turn positive later in coming weeks. AuroPharma : Buy / buy on dips with targets of 225 / 235 support at 192.90 Bata : Risky trade buy with target of 875 stop 825 DlF : Sell / sell on rise with targets of 121 / 118 and 115 stop at 134.95 buy lower puts Godrejind : Sell with target of 260.90 stop at 279 Hindalco : Sell / Sell on rise around 116 target 107.50 stop at 118.90 / buy puts Idfc : Buy Puts can test 85 on the downside Jswsteel : Sell / sell on rise with target of 705 / 689 / 668.90 stop at 760 / buy lower puts LT : Sell below 803 target 771 stop 825 / buy puts Relcapital : Looks very weak Sell / sell on rise around 325.50 with targets of 308 can even test 289 total break down below it and then will correct sharply minimum 10% to 15% from there Tatasteel : Punting call buy puts can test 275 / 268 on the downside stop at 296.50 Mid Cap Balramchini : Buy only investment will test 50.85 / 55 and 61 on the upside Loveable : Investment can test 330 / 355 and above on the upside or buy on dips around 260 / 245 with above targets Pidilite : Investment / Positional buy with target of 199 / 225 buy on every dip. NOTE : Sugar stocks will shine in coming weeks Small / midcap pharma stocks can rally Smalll / mid cap Textile and Spinning stocks will rally.
Posted on: Sun, 29 Sep 2013 07:13:46 +0000
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