*** SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THREAT FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC INCREASING FPR FEB 11-12-13 .. YES THIS INCLUDES PART OF NORTH CAROLINA .... see maps below If you take a look at the 6-10 DAY forecast from CPC from yesterday afternoon youll see that they have a large area of much above normal precipitation over the East Coast from North Carolina to Boston and a large area of below normal temperatures over the Midwest into the northeast. Clearly CPC is expecting something significant to occur and the East Coast in this timeframe... Mainly February 11-12-13. And clearly they know enough to ignore the operational G FS and I hope by this time you are doing that as well. THE 0z Friday early morning GFS has essentially no system whatsoever. This first image shows the 0z GFS snowfall and as you can see this run of the GFS only has snow over the Tennessee Valley into much of North Carolina . It has no snow north of the Virginia North Carolina border. WHY ???? The model does not see the southern piece of energy which as I stated and show before many times is a common problem with the G FS at this time range. As a result it sees the arctic air but it just develops a wave of overrunning precipitation which produces the snow North Carolina. The 6Z GFS is pretty much the same sort of thing but notice that it has significantly more snow over southwestern Virginia into the lower portions of the Shenandoah Valley. It also has heavier snow over Central Western North Carolina. WHY? Because now the 6z FRIDAY AM GFS SEES or detects more of a surface low along the arctic front. It is still way too weak when compared with what is actually going to happen but a least it is a step in the right direction. Because the 6z GFS is now seeing a weak Low it ends up producing more snow. Not surprisingly the GFS ENSEMBLE shows the same sort of thing. The individual ensemble are just as flawed and inept when it comes to handling East Coast winter storms as the operational run beyond 84 hours All of this is in dramatic disagreement with the operational European model and the EURO ensemble mean. This image shows the 0z or early Friday morning European snowfall and again it is very consistent and matches the last 4 operational European model runss. One thing that should be noted is that the snow appears to be much heavier over over the southern areas of the East Coast then north of the PA-MD border !! The model shows much heavier snowfall over northeast GA western SC western and central portions of NC much of western central and southwestern VA into MD when compared to the snow mounts north of the PA MD border . Once again the European model is a huge snowstorm hit for Washington, DC down through Richmond including all of Charlottesville the entire Piedmont into Roanoke dAnville Lynchburg and the snow starved areas of interior Virginia WHY? The reasoning is quite simple. When the event begins the arctic air is an ideal position for East Coast snowstorm . the ciold HIGH pressure area is located over very close to Montreal Canada so the cold air pushes all way down into GA and SC. Hence the overunning precipitation falls as snow even in northeast GA . But by the time the actual LOW begins to develop the cold HIGH is sliding east into southeastern Canada which is a bad position for East Coast snowstorm. As a result the snow changes to rain over much of Eastern New England and New York City. *** again that is what the model shows that is not my forecast.*** Finally here is the Canadian model and it has the same sort a problem as the GFs. The model correctly detects the amount of overrunning precipitation in the first portion of storm but still has a fairly weak Low at the surface so the precipitation fall from DC to Charlotte . Notice that much of central and Eastern Tennessee sees significant snow fall as well. I do not think the Canadian model which place is the best snows between Richmond and Norfolk and lower Maryland Eastern shore is correct. But it could be.
Posted on: Fri, 07 Feb 2014 14:33:41 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015