Saturday Morning August 23 Tropical Update from QWC and more on Invest 96L. Good morning folks! Wanted to give everyone a quick and somewhat detailed update on what is going on with Invest 96L and try to answer all the what, where, how and why questions concerning this tropical wave. 1. Below is a great video produced by Meteorologist Grant Gilmore at WFMY TV in Greensboro, NC concerning 96L and Grant pretty much nails it. You may want to watch it. Thanks to Grant for a great video. 2. Whats it doing now? pretty much just kicking up the waves as 96L has yet to even become a Tropical Depression. 3. Whats it going to do? Your guess is as good as mine. The latest models concensus and guidance has 96L strengthening over the next 48-72 hours and could become a TD or Tropical Storm Cristobal by Monday. 4. Where is it going? Now that is the $64,000.00 question. As you can see in the additional comments below, the models are split now on how it is going to go. There are 3 different schools of thought on where 96L will go. Scenario 1 is to go up the slot in the Western Atlantic and get caught up in the trough to the north and keep 96L a Fish Storm. Scenario 2 is a landfall somewhere along the Southeast Coast from Southern Florida to the Virginia Capes and lastly Scenario 3 will curve 96L to the WNW, make a Florida landfall then continue WNW into the Gulf of Mexico for a potential Gulf Coast landfall. 5. What does Quags think? To quote Jimmy Buffett, I dont know. With the shift in the models overnight, Its now anybodys guess. Im now thinking that Scenario 2 is possible (landfall somewhere or close to the Southeast Coast) but I am still leaning towards Scenario 1 from above and that 96L will be a Fish Storm once it clears the Bahamas. Disclaimer, I have been wrong many times before and Mother Nature has a mind of here own as all you women know already...lol! :) Keep scrolling down for the latest model images in the comments. Finally, I want to give a shout out to Tayor Weiss at DFW Weather Center and at the Virginia Weather Network for holding steady to his theory that 96L could still be a threat to the Gulf Coastal Region. I may have been a little harsh on the young lad but his idea is still valid at this point and he could very well end up being correct. My apologies for being an old disgruntled old fart. Its still way too soon to see what happens and I will be keeping an eye on this through out the weekend. -Quags https://youtube/watch?v=uIykukrNdVQ&feature=youtu.be&a
Posted on: Sat, 23 Aug 2014 14:46:00 +0000
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