Say what you like about Vladimir Putin. But his appearance at a joint session of Russias parliament Tuesday was brilliantly staged. It was, after all, a speech certain to be watched around the world. It had to look historic. This was, of all moments, the one for Putin to put an end to any doubt about his intentions — not that there was very much out there — and sign a declaration making Crimea part of the Russian Federation. In the Kremlin, the camera shots were expertly cut to take in the whole scene and reinforce the key messages Putin was sending the world: the grandeur of the ornate chandeliers, the religious minorities sitting in the crowd, the flags on either side of him. Look at these events, for a moment, from Putins perspective. A man who has long lamented the fall of the Soviet Union, he finally managed to bring a serious piece of it back to the Russian fold — and without a single loss of Russian life. No small feat. No wonder hes apparently doing so well in the polls. And given the mostly lacklustre response from the West — many admonitions, sanctions against a small handful of Russian officials and vague threats of G8 expulsion — no wonder he doesnt look worried. Ultimately, with Crimea now firmly in Russias sphere, and Kyiv in the Wests, the only way out of this is negotiation and diplomacy. The wheels are already in motion. Putins confidence at this point rests on his argument that Crimeas departure from Ukraine to join Russia meets international legal tests, despite what Western governments say. Putin probably also calculates that while the big Western democracies might suspend Russia from participating in some of the upcoming G8 meetings, they are not likely to expel it, much as some of them might want to. Russia joined the G8 in 1998 on U.S. encouragement, bolstered by the support of several member countries, including Canada. The idea was that the benefits of including Russia in the exclusive club would be better than excluding it. Better politically, better for stability, potentially, one day, even better economically for all concerned. Most G8 members probably still believe that is the case, despite Crimea. A quick look at a world map suggests why: Russia is still crucial to some of the worlds big problems: Syria and Iran, to name just a couple. Most of those European G8 countries also have strong economic ties with Russia, either as energy importers or as financial centres, that they dont want to mess with. While some, like Canada, may be more hawkish on Russia, they will likely be forced to toe the line, if only to preserve some semblance of Western unity. So the strong likelihood is that the G8 club will go some way in forcing Putin to pay for his Crimean grab, short of throwing him out. Not unless Putin continues on a quest to bring more pieces of Soviet Russia back. Not unless he rushes into Eastern Ukraine to protect Russian rights there too. Many diplomats and defense analysts are fairly certain he wont do that. Putin has apparently indicated to Germanys Angela Merkel that he may be satisfied with the idea of international military observers, forcefully barred from Crimea two weeks ago, going into Eastern Ukraine to look into Russian minority rights there. Their presence on the ground — unarmed, small and ultimately symbolic — would still give the impression the West has managed to do something concrete about the worst crisis Europe has faced in some time. cbc.ca/news/world/why-vladimir-putin-s-crimea-victory-may-be-the-end-of-russia-s-ukraine-blitz-1.2577873
Posted on: Sun, 23 Mar 2014 21:29:40 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015