Some interesting new V3 Spin Cell PV technologies: Market Assessment and Commercial Evaluation The global PV market is expected to be approximately 30 GW of new installations worth about $100 B at the point of use in 2012. It has experienced remarkable growth (approximately 50% CAGR) in the last decade primarily due to substantial incentives put in place in Germany, Italy, Spain, and other EU countries and to a lesser extent the U.S. and China in more recent years. The attractive markets created by the incentives have created an even greater response of PV manufacturing capacity which is now estimated to be approximately 60 GW p.a. globally. The excess capacity has driven prices down to the production costs of the marginal producers. Markets globally are only now reacting to this changed landscape for PV economics. While there are certainly some downsides to the commercialization of any new PV technology in this market environment, there are some large upsides as well for the Spin Cell. First, the low prices of PV systems are now causing an explosion of new markets. The awakening of many countries of the world to the potential of PV creates an environment where much of the “heavy lifting” of creating awareness and interest in the PV technology has already been done and nations, corporations, and individuals are ready to purchase – provided the economic value proposition is solid. The blossoming of markets also means that applications are broadening and opportunities for differentiated products (like the Spin Cell) are expanding. Additionally, the availability of low-cost PV cells from many suppliers makes V3 Solar a potentially valuable customer for the main part of the PV supply chain. This should help keep V3 Solar’s costs low on this key component. Although the precise numbers won’t be known until the design has been finalized, the use of concentration should also allow V3 Solar to use a fraction of the amount of PV cells needed by traditional flat plate designs to produce similar amounts of energy. In looking at the market, if V3 Solar were to only garner 0.1% of today’s global PV market this would represent approximately $100 m per year in revenue, and a 1% share would represent roughly $1b in sales. If V3 Solar can achieve its goals for cost, performance, and reliability a significant penetration seems likely. While competing economically with other PV approaches and ultimately other renewable and fossil sources of energy is important for long term success, the unique appearance and other attributes of the spin cell can be exploited to carve out market niches where those aspects provide value above that of electricity alone. In the former case, architects and designers often express their disappointment at the pedestrian appearance and lack of dynamism of traditional flat plate PV arrays. The spin cell by virtue of its shape and motion should excite the imaginations of those in these communities looking to have solar energy with an active visible component in their projects. On a more technical front, the rotational inertia and stored energy of the spin cell may provide additional value in ancillary services on the grid such as voltage and frequency support. It should also mitigate one of the problems of traditional PV, the rapid ramp up and ramp down of PV power on the grid as clouds pass over PV arrays. The fact that the Spin Cell system has a lower fraction of its costs in PV cells in comparison with conventional PV means that there is also more potential for local value added where countries are looking to develop local PV manufacturing and local employment. This should also provide an advantage to V3 Solar in developing business in emerging markets where the opportunity to develop the local solar energy economy is important to local and national governments. The Spin Cell concept has substantial IP protection covering all aspects of dynamic spin in PV and this IP should be highly valuable when the Spin Cell has been reduced to practice. Since the concept is highly visible any imitation would be difficult to accomplish without a presenting a public violation of the IP. In looking at the costs of the Spin Cell, it makes sense to outline the savings possible in comparison to flat plate PV using the following “round numbers” example. PV costs approximately $100 per square meter. The lensing material for the outer cone of the Spin Cell costs approximately $10 per square meter. The cost per watt of the Spin Cell can be reduced by increasing the ratio of the lensing material to the PV. If one square meter of PV costs $100 and produces 200 watts, and one square meter of the lensing material that concentrates the sunlight in the Spin Cell 20 times would only cost $10, then 1/20th of the PV would be required to produce 200 watts, at a cost of $5 for the PV. In this case, the Bill of Material (BOM) costs would be $15 instead of $100 for the flat panel. The Spin Cell has other BOM costs, but these are balanced by the increased production due to the built in tracking of its shape which allow it to produce more energy for longer periods during the day when compared to currently available flat panel products. While the exact costs will not be determined until the design is complete, the initial estimates are competitive with or lower than today’s standard PV systems and it is expected that these costs will decline substantially due to scale and experience curve effects once production ramps up. Overall, V3 Solar appears to have a concept that can carve out a solid place in the solar and overall electricity market and is pursuing a sound strategy in examining and understanding the details of the technology to provide the best possible initial design.
Posted on: Sun, 23 Jun 2013 21:11:53 +0000
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