** Southeast QLD / NE NSW / Darling Downs : Afternoon Storms returning by Tuesday or Wednesday with wait for it..... some RAIN ** ** The Buildup to the wet season gradually getting underway in the Tropics ** Well.. Who likes the idea of some rain during this coming week? Rather than these trough systems weve seen race through from the west, this system if forecast to remain very slow moving, and produce consecutive days of afternoon thunderstorms with the main welcome element being the possibility of some widespread useful short downpours. Its starting to look a bit more like a late Spring/Going into Summer pattern for the next 7 days at least, as a trough starts to establish itself through eastern Queensland. Tomorrow will be the last of the quiet days, with just a low/medium chance of something between about Rockhampton and Gympie. Then by Tuesday, we start to see the transition.. it will start with a healthy round of storms on parts of the Sunshine Coast and especially the Wide Bay/Burnett areas during Tuesday afternoon between Gympie and Bundaberg. Thunderstorms should be decently scattered too so more places should at least see their gardens get a drink.. By Wednesday, this trough starts to spread southwards into Southeast QLD and Northeast NSW too and also a bit further west into the Darling Downs. Storms should be even more widespread than Tuesday and theres the potential for some nice falls of rain with these storms. The instability lasts well into the night too so rain and a lightshow sounds like just the way Id like to spend my Wednesday night. By Thursday, the trough becomes very slow moving, so it could almost be a carbon copy of what we see on Wednesday, although the trough starts to also destabilize the atmosphere in the tropics and this continues to build into the weekend.. so you poor dry folks that have had a very dry Spring, should finally start to the see the buildup set in. From Friday is a bit too far out to call with any certainty at the moment, but the trends are showing the trough starting to move towards the WEST. By this point, there is a chance that widespread storms could affect anywhere from the Maranoa/Warrego all the way through to the coast. Then by next weekend, a large portion of QLD should be unstable with only the Southeast QLD coast possibly missing out. We can deal with this though, because theres no harm whatsoever in sending a trough westwards to some of the drought stricken areas can have a few days of afternoon downpours. This pattern looks like setting in for 7 days or more with a broad trough sitting pretty over the whole state of QLD in the long term models. So we could finally see the end of Spring live up to its name a bit more than it has been. The first picture here that Ive used is the Cross Totals output for Tuesday. You can see the areas north of Brisbane look a good bet each way on at least getting some showers and/or a storm. The second picture is the Lifted Index (showing general instability) by the time we reach the end of this coming week, and its a sight for sore eyes seeing almost the whole state in with a chance of seeing some showers/rain and some storms! (Cam)
Posted on: Sun, 16 Nov 2014 06:19:27 +0000
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