Sport: Rugby League (State of Origin Game 2) Market: QLD Maroons v NSW Blues Pick: NSW +9 ½ pts Odds: $1.57 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 5 Units Analysis: The odds being offered by bookies (and in particular Centrebet) today are just plain wrong. They don’t add up from an odds point of view or from a logic point of view. Whilst we wont be overly surprised if the Maroons win Game 2, we will be surprised if they cover the line being offered by Centrebet, which is 6 pts. Whilst tempted to take the converted try start for the Blues, looking a little further down we found NSW with a 9 ½ pt start showing at $1.57 and couldn’t resist increasing the units wagered and taking slightly lower odds than we normally would. Sportsbet have the same line at $1.46 and our own calculations have it rated at around $1.35 – excellent value at $1.57. NSW have all the momentum, superior forwards and a deeper bench. Whilst they do not have a Jonathon Thurston, NSW do have some quality backs and likes of a fresh Josh Dugan gives them an X Factor we like. In the changes they have made, QLD have traded size for speed but NSW have them covered in both these areas and we are more than happy with our 9 ½ pt start against a suspect QLD team coming off a smashing in Game 1. Take the Blues with the 9 ½ point start and enjoy the game. #EasyMoney
Posted on: Wed, 26 Jun 2013 07:34:06 +0000
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