Status Update By Tal Blessed Hoov To all my KY and IL friends, please read and take precautions: ago #tristatewx December 3, 2013: 10 AM Update - We dont forecast to scare you, but rather to prepare you. This is a forecast - not a promise. Numbers will need to be constantly crunched as we move forward. Meteorologists are working hard to pin down the specifics. Please see additional concerns at the bottom of this message. We may not have a handle on this storm until Wednesday night. This is why we are telling you to prepare now for the possibilities. Again, possibilities are just that - potential. Potential does not always make reality. A significant winter storm is developing. A damaging ice storm is looking more and more likely across SOME of our counties. Remember that freezing rain is rain that falls and then freezes on contact with surfaces. This makes for the sidewalk to appear wet but it will actually be ice. Sleet are small pellets of solid ice that fall from the sky. What we dont know - very important Remember that ice storms (winter storms in general) are extremely difficult to predict. We are now 2 1/2 days from this event. Each forecast will fine tune the specifics just a little bit more. Keep in mind that a shift of 10-20 miles in the freezing line could mean the difference between a lot of sleet (which we can handle) and freezing rain that cause tree limbs and power lines to break. It is still TOO EARLY to specifically name what counties in our area will have the most freezing rain. If you want less impact then hope for sleet or snow. We can handle sleet and snow. Remember in 2009 that areas near the TN/KY line had all rain - one county north had severe damage from freezing rain. Location, location, location - will be key to this forecast. Areas further east or southeast in our region may remain rain longer than other areas. That would be good - a cold rain will do no damage. As long as the temperature remains above 32 degrees. When I say areas further east I am talking about areas east of the Land Between the Lakes. Eventually those areas will also experience frozen precipitation (just thinking they may hold on longer to just plain old rain). Monitor updates. I will tell you exactly what I am telling my family. Prepare for the potential of a damaging ice storm. Today, I am filling up my propane tank for the generator. You have today through Thursday morning to prepare. Lets take a look at what we know... Rain will develop over our region on Thursday morning. The rain will first develop over southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois. By Thursday afternoon the rain will start to change to freezing rain, sleet, and perhaps snow - mainly over the western and northwestern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The cold air arrives there first and then oozes southeastward. Rain will overspread southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee by Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain may begin to mix with freezing rain and sleet. This is where the forecast gets tricky... Thursday night we will experience rain or a wintry mix over far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. The rain should start to change completely over to freezing rain and sleet. Some accumulation of freezing rain is likely to occur. The EXACT placement of the 32 degree line will determine whether you have cold rain or freezing rain. Remember that freezing rain is rain that falls from the sky and then freezes upon contact with cars, power lines, tree limbs, and other. Remember that sleet are little balls of bouncy ice that fall from the sky. Friday - freezing rain, sleet, and snow likely. Some accumulation likely. Temperatures will hold steady or fall through the day. Friday night - snow flurries ending. Cold. Lows in the teens. Saturday - Cold. Dry. Highs only in the 20s. Saturday night and Sunday - Snow, sleet, and freezing rain developing. Additional accumulation possible. Cold. Lows Sunday morning around 15-18. Highs on Sunday only in the lower 30s. This is a large winter storm system. Area residents should plan accordingly. Hopefully the impacts wont be too severe. I cant guarantee that. Some of the computer model data is spitting out some pretty big numbers. This concerns me. Thus, I am telling you what I know. Remember it is a forecast - not a promise. Very cold air will make it difficult for elderly people if the power fails. Consider this now - before the roads become treacherous. Generators should not be kept inside or near a house. Fumes can be deadly. In 2009 several people were killed because their generators were placed inside a garage connected to a home and/or inside of a home. There will be a high risk of bone fractures from people falling. Ice could cause sidewalks to appear wet but actually be ice. Use care. Please remind people of the above.
Posted on: Tue, 03 Dec 2013 18:46:10 +0000