Steve signing in at 7:35 AM. Light to moderate rain has overspread McDowell and most of Burke and Caldwell Counties. The main rain shield has not actually reached Catawba County but is making steady progress in that direction so Catawba should see steadier rain by later this morning also. Temperatures area-wide are within a degree or two of 40° at the moment. Lots to talk about. First, based on surface observations I would place the actual front cold over the Cumberland Plateau of eastern middle Tennessee, about 40 miles west of Knoxville. The front is forecast to enter our 4-county area around 1 PM but based on the forward progress of the current rain shield, it could be a little later. Were in somewhat of a wedge pattern right now with temperatures about 5 to 7 degrees warmer in eastern Tennessee than they are here. Also the rain becomes more showery the farther south you travel and it appears that there are some embedded thunderstorms in eastern Georgia and the western South Carolina midlands also surging northward. So this is a complicated weather pattern overall. What I think is going to happen is that steadier rains should become more showery as precipitation spreads into Catawba County. Some thunder is even possible before the front exits the eastern communities of Catawba later this afternoon. Temperatures could rise into the upper 50s in the eastern parts of Catawba ahead of the front but probably stay closer to 50° in McDowell where the front passes through earlier in the day. Once the front exits our area during the mid to late afternoon hours, we should see clearing skies, colder temperatures and gusty winds this evening. However, in the higher elevations and mountains, including the northwestern parts of our counties, rain could change over to a period of light ice and then snow showers overnight. Slippery road conditions are a possibility on Highways 221, 19 and 321 overnight. Temperatures along the I-40 corridor should fall to the low and mid 20s Tuesday morning. I cant rule out a stray flurry even in the Marion, Morganton and Hickory areas but I think most communities should stay dry with mostly clear skies. Well see sunshine Tuesday but with temperatures near the freezing mark all day and gusty northwest winds subsiding only slowly, it will feel anything but pleasant outside. Expect coldest temperatures Wednesday morning with mid-teens likely along the I-40 corridor and some single digits in the mountains. Very unusual weather for mid November. Wednesday itself should see moderating temperatures and a return to southerly winds during the afternoon. Highs Wednesday should reach the low 40s, then low to mid 50s into next weekend. By next Sunday, another, more potent storm system comes into play. Strong low pressure develops over the mid-Mississippi Valley and tracks northeastward into the Great Lakes region Sunday night or Monday morning. Barometric pressure in the core of this low pressure system could be as low as that in a Category 1 hurricane. The low will track north and west of us, putting us in the warm sector. A cool-air wedge Sunday afternoon will temporarily maintain a more stable atmosphere over our area as rain showers or steady rain begins. However, the potent southerly flow ahead of this low pressure system and attendant cold front appear to break down the wedge during the overnight Sunday or early Monday morning. In fact, one of the long-range models show temperatures in the 70s in the Charlotte area Monday morning. There is likely to be a good deal of wind shear and instability also streams northward over most of the area east of the Blue Ridge including us. What this means, is that an episode of severe thunderstorms are looking more and more possible during the overnight Sunday into Monday morning. While the long range models are pretty consistent in showing this major storm system, there are still significant differences in timing between them. However, if the peak of the activity moves into our area during the overnight (November 23/24) we could be facing a potentially dangerous weather threat since tornados are possible with a system of this strength. This could be a classic late autumn/winter time severe weather situation so stay tuned for further updates as the week progresses. Behind this system later Monday into the day before Thanksgiving, we are now looking at a gradual, not a sharp retreat in temperatures. However, there is also a hint of a secondary system developing along the frontal boundary later Monday that could spill more precipitation into our area and temperatures at that point could be cool enough for at least mountain snows. That is still a long shot, however, and the greater threat for us is what could happen in the Sunday night/Monday morning timeframe. As if this is not enough, were potentially looking at a cold Thanksgiving with a possible clipper system diving southeastward and posing the possibility for more precipitation.
Posted on: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 13:11:44 +0000
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