Steve signing in at 7:35 AM. Mainly clear skies this morning with some high clouds moving in from the north and west. These clouds are moving out ahead of a cold front with weak low pressure over southwestern Ohio. The main impact from this front today for us will be some gusty southwest winds, warmer temperatures and humidity between 25% and 30%. Thus, it would be a good idea to postpone outdoor burning because we will have an elevated fire danger. It doesnt take long for surface fuels to dry out and with temperatures close to 80F along the I-40 corridor, well have plenty of tinder around that could easily flare up and spread due to the gusty winds. Right now, temperatures are mainly in the 40s, 46.2F at Burke Weather HQ in Valdese and except for a 38F at Foothills AP, mid 40s are pretty representative for the area. Like I said, under sunny skies, southwesterly breezes will pick up today, driving temperatures up to the 80F mark in the foothills, low to mid 70s in Jonas Ridge, Linville and other Blue Ridge communities. The front is likely to stall and wash out before it gets here and with the dry atmosphere now in place, there is a very minimal chance of any rain, even in the mountains. Saturday and Sunday will be much like today with a little less wind; in other words, an ideal mid-April weekend. Take advantage of it because the nice weather, unfortunately, is not going to last. A storm system gathers in the central Plains Sunday and slowly moves eastward in our direction on Monday. It looks like there is going to be a pretty strong cold front associated with this system. Monday could be dry for most of us during the daytime hours although the chances for scattered upslope showers increase during the afternoon. Those showers become more likely Monday night as the front moves into western and middle Tennessee. This is likely to be a slow-moving front and may barely make it to the Tennessee side of the mountains Tuesday morning. As the front drifts eastward into the Blue Ridge and Foothills low pressure develops over Alabama or Georgia and rides northeastward up the front. The timing on all this happening is still up for grabs since we wont have input yet from the mesoscale or short-range models for at least another 24 to 36 hours. However, the setup I described above is ripe for a heavy rain event from later Monday evening into Tuesday evening. Thunderstorms are also possible. I cant rule out a severe thunderstorm or two Tuesday but we are likely to have a lot of cloud cover and rain with temperatures somewhere around 60F. There may not be sufficient instability to trigger severe thunderstorms here. Further east, especially if the clouds break up for a short time and where temperatures could be in the mid or upper 60s, the severe storm threat goes up; most likely the usual locations along the I-85 corridor and eastward. What we are more likely to notice Tuesday night and beyond is a sharp drop in the temperature. Expect Wednesday to be a much cooler day with partly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures in the 50s. Frost and possible freeze conditions could occur Wednesday night and Thursday, a real concern since our growing season begins on Tuesday, April 15. Personally, I would hold off planting any kind of summer vegetable until after Easter since late next week is likely to be up to 10 degrees cooler than average and we could have multiple nights of frost or freezing conditions. Whats more, there is the slightest suggestion that a coastal low could develop late next week placing us, once more, in a wedge-type pattern. Thats a little more uncertain at this point but the general trend next week will be toward below normal temperatures with very unsettled conditions improving as the week progresses.
Posted on: Fri, 11 Apr 2014 11:59:51 +0000
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