TD 4 HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL THIS MORNING NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WHILE A LARGE SPREAD REMAINS IN THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL...NEARLY ALL RE-CURVE CRISTOBAL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST KEEPING A MAJORITY OF IMPACTS OFFSHORE. CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACKS THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL APPROX 250 MI TO THE SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SUCH A LARGE SPREAD IN MODELS THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY. BIGGEST IMPACTS EXPECTED BE FELT ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WITH INCREASED SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...BUT JUST HOW SIGNIFICANT THE IMPACTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS AS MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS ALONG THE OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH POTENTIALLY MOVING ONSHORE...OR POSSIBLY FAR OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM CRISTOBAL. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF CRISTOBAL SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
Posted on: Mon, 25 Aug 2014 02:31:56 +0000