THE ERODING DETERRENCE OF HAMAS: In the last post I focused on Israels failed deterrence strategy. Hamas was able to keep the conflict simmering for over a year but its deterrence strategy of building up a size able rocket arsenal has ultimately failed to deter Israel in this round. So what happened here? The game changer is none other than The Iron Dome system. It has done much more than save lives. It has enabled Israel to attack Gaza with impunity. History demonstrates how technological developments allow governments to make bold gambits when it gives them a strategic advantage. In the current situation the existence of Iron Dome emboldened Israel to act aggressively against Hamas in the wake of the kidnapping of the three Jewish teens near Hebron. Indeed, Iron Dome already proved itself in 2012, keeping the number of civilian casualties to 3 in 1,456 rocket attacks. Over the past year Hamas acquired longer range rockets, but Israel doubled its deployment of Iron Dome batteries. It is no coincidence the eighth was just deployed. Through yesterday there were no direct casualties in 809 attacks, an unprecedented success rate. Subsequently Israel can be patient with a cease-fire. I know it is a stretch but I am reminded of the Battle of the Bulge. Hitler was hoping to capture Antwerp and sue for peace, but the Allies technological advantage, having Jeeps to ferry personnel and materiel to the front while the Nazis were still using horses, helped them thwart the offensive. There was no motivation to accept any cease-fire overtures. As long as Israel is not put under intense diplomatic pressure, it has no reason to let up on Gaza. The offensive will remain the status quo until something changes Israels calculations. Not even a unilateral truce by Hamas, which seems unlikely anyway, may be enough now.
Posted on: Sun, 13 Jul 2014 06:25:44 +0000
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