THE LESSON THAT OSUN TEACHES Category: Monday column Published on Monday, 11 August 2014 05:00 Written by Mahmud Jega mmjega@dailytrust. The speed with which the Osun State election was concluded at the weekend was a step forward for Nigerian elections. The returning officer Prof Bamidele Omole was able to declare Governor Rauf Aregbesola the election winner by early morning yesterday, much earlier than was the case in Ekiti State in June, even though Osun has nearly twice as many local governments. Not only the speed, the overall successful conduct of the governorship election in Osun State [State of Osun, beg your pardon] was cheering news for Nigerian democracy. It received muted praise only because the earlier election in Ekiti had created a precedent for largely flawless elections. The most common problems of late arrival of election materials, shortage of election materials, late opening of polling stations, long and rowdy queues were mostly absent in this election. The politicians also appeared to behave well with no reports of thugs intimidating voters, rival thugs clashing at polling stations or the snatching of ballot papers. But look more closely. The most criticised aspect of the Ekiti and Osun elections was what opposition politicians called “militarisation” of those states, the large deployment of anti-riot police with soldiers backing them up in some places. Could it be that this, rather than an improvement in politicians’ conduct was what made for peaceful polls? Trouble is, with elections holding on the same day in most of the states in 2015, where will the Federal Government find enough security agents to blanket the whole place? That the politicians did not really improve their act in Osun is suggested by APC’s pre-election strategy of laying markers for rejecting the results in case its candidate loses. APC leaders said INEC had got a ballot paper that automatically changes votes to PDP; they said PDP had already drawn up result sheets even before the vote; and they said they will use telephones to photograph their ballot papers after thumb-printing them. This pre-emptive style was invented two years ago by Adams Oshiomhole, who loudly cried on election day that it was flawed. When he was declared winner by a landslide, he praised the election. It is unfair to assume that the outcome determines an election’s credibility. Apart from the obvious improvement in INEC’s logistical act and the blanket security measures, another factor in recent election improvement is that two almost evenly matched parties were contending in the two states. APC and PDP each had enough presence and enough financial muscle in the two states to man every polling and collation centre. This is an important lesson for next year’s elections; a serious political party should not lack effective presence in many areas and instead rely on the honesty of election officials. Now, many people are happy with the Osun election not necessarily for the right reasons. They are happy that Rauf Aregbesola, candidate of the opposition APC, won the election and Michael Iyiola Omisore, candidate of the ruling PDP, was defeated. Truly, Omisore is not popular across Nigeria. The fact that he was previously detained over the 2002 murder of Chief Bola Ige makes him a very controversial election candidate. That aside, there are many Nigerians today who think that an election is only credible when a PDP candidate loses. If a PDP candidate wins, then it must either be that the votes were manipulated, the counting was fraudulent, voters were intimidated by soldiers or at least, that voters were bribed with money and bags of rice. The combined lesson from Ekiti and Osun for both PDP and APC is that the candidate matters, not assumed party popularity. The mass media has fostered the belief that certain parts of Nigeria are permanent “strongholds” of certain political parties. There is a certain historical basis for this assertion. Even though the names of political parties have changed with every democratic season in Nigeria, there are noticeable historical continuities in certain areas. For example, the Awoist political tendency is traceable in Yorubaland from the Action Group through to UPN, the unregistered SPP, SDP, AD, AC, ACN all the way through to APC. In other places, however, the historical political tendencies have reconfigured beyond recognition. In Kano State, for example, it is difficult to say where the Santsi and Tabo PRP factions stand today. They scattered in a mish-mash manner in PDP, ANPP and CPC through to APC, while the defection of Kwankwasiyya to APC and the Shekarau people’s counter defection to PDP completely obliterated the historical tendencies. Nor is it easy to trace elements of the Borno Youth Movement today; no particular party harbours that tendency. The lesson to learn here is that no one should assume that voters must stick to a certain political tendency because it is the historically dominant one in that part of the country. Ask APC in Ekiti. In the far North as a whole, the once dominant NPC-NPN-NRC historical political tendency is hardly traceable today. Things became confused in the Third Republic when Major General Shehu Yar’adua became the top SDP factor, even though his group had NPN roots. Things got even more mixed up from 1998 when NPC-NPN elements scattered among APP and PDP. Today, the majority of Northern masses could be supporters of General Muhammadu Buhari. This was the man who led the overthrow, detention and discrediting of NPN [as well as other parties] but he is seen in much of the South as the symbol of Northern power grab. Overlooked here is the fact that most of the Northern political elite, despite its expressed hostility to President Jonathan, is not enthusiastic about Buhari, to put it mildly. If the election management trend from Ekiti and Osun continues, we could soon attain a situation in Nigeria where the electoral commission ceases to be an important factor in elections. The American election season lasts nearly two years and receives saturation publicity around the world but there is hardly a mention in the media of the election’s organisers. A candidate devotes all his or her time working to get voters to cast their votes for him or her in the confident knowledge that that is all that matters. In our clime, though, a candidate endlessly frets that election officials could connive with his opponent and rob him of victory irrespective of voters’ wishes. The end to that worry may be in sight. One day during the Third Republic, I happened to be present at a place in Kaduna where members of a party youth wing were discussing their frustration with their party’s state chairman. They went to him several times with suggestions about things that they thought should be done but the chairman did not pay much attention. Most of them thought the chairman lacked seriousness but one them said, “I know why he does not listen to us. Our chairman believes in rigging.” Personally, I do not measure the success of an election solely based on the candidate or party that is declared the winner but I am glad that Aregbesola won the Osun election. Why, because if Omisore had won, APC leaders and members could not possibly believe that they made the same mistake twice. They have grudgingly accepted that Governor Kayode Fayemi was a problem candidate in Ekiti because of his elitist stance. One cannot be more grassroot-oriented than Aregbesola. Even his looks are not gubernatorial; he has too many wrinkles on his face when he should be sporting a well-fed look. That a thief was able to dip his hand into Aregbesola’s pocket and take away his cell phone during his first inauguration four years ago shows how open the man is. [Chuckle]. Besides, Aregbesola’s victory has stemmed APC’s backward slide in recent months and has restored a measure of competitiveness to the 2015 election. The defeat of Kayode Fayemi, the impeachment of Governor Murtala Nyako and the near-miss impeachment of Governor Umaru Tanko Al-Makura eroded much of APC’s smug confidence that it is a shoo-in in 2015. If it had suffered a defeat in Osun, APC’s confidence would have evaporated completely. Now, at least, the main opposition party still has a fighting chance in 2015. This is not an invitation to PDP to unleash more desperate tactics .
Posted on: Thu, 14 Aug 2014 06:04:34 +0000
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