THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN PINES NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 306...WW 307... DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT FROM SOUTHEAST VA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NC HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500 TO OVER 4000 J/KG...AND DCAPE WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...AREA VWP/S SHOW DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW INCREASING TO 50KT AT 3 KM AGL. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME CAPE...INCREASING SHEAR...AND ONGOING ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE LINE AND FORCING IN THE PROCESS OF CRESTING THE APPALACHIANS...A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS QUITE LIKELY. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS EXPECT MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST HAZARD APPEARS TO BE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE /65KT/. THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE AROUND THE VA/NC BORDER AREA WITH A DECREASING CHANCE FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE AND LOWER STORM COVERAGE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29040. ...CARBIN
Posted on: Thu, 13 Jun 2013 18:14:18 +0000
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