TROPICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN AREA FROM 1200Z 8 NOV 2014 THE ANALYSIS SHOWS -----------ONE North Atlantic (non tropical) Low Pressure Storm------------- One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 23.00 N 96.00 W ------------------------------One Tropical Wave---------------------------------- One Tropical wave that is located at 22.00 N 67.00 W to 13.00 N 68.00 W -----------------------------GULF OF MEXICO--------------------------------- THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO ARE WELL TO THE NORTH OF 32N AT THIS MOMENT. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N65W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 31N65W... ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W... INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND CURVING TO 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N95W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 28N68W 24N71W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.18 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 18N94W 23N90W 25N80W...ALSO REACHING PARTS OF THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS STATES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 25N NORTHWARD TO FLORIDA BETWEEN 80W AND 89W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CLOUDINESS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.79 IN MONTERREY IN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KIPN...KIKT...AND KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AT THIS MOMENT. ------------------------------CARIBBEAN SEA--------------------------------- A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N65W...TO SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N55W 13N58W 14N61W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N60W 17N62W 16N63W 14N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 53W AND 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N93W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. A RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM 14N93W TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND 14N80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA AND 10N NORTHWARD...FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPERIENCING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE 20N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 3.48 IN GUADELOUPE...3.31 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.28 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...0.24 IN CURACAO...AND 0.17 IN TRINIDAD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 6N79W...TO 8N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND BEYOND 7N88W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ------------------------------HISPANIOLA--------------------------------- A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N70W...ABOUT 50 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ON TOP OF HAITI AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 28N68W 24N71W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W...AND AN ISOLATED CELL OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 14N67W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...A SEPARATE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 20N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THEN DISSIPATE...WITH THE WHOLE FEATURE OPENING INTO A TROUGH AND PUSHING EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL END UP BEING MORE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE ENDS UP CROSSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 20N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE WHOLE FEATURE OPENING INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE ENDS UP CROSSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST TIME. THE 700 MB GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO- SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WIND FLOW WILL BE RELATED TO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ------------------------------ATLANTIC OCEAN--------------------------------- A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS MOMENT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N38W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.
Posted on: Sat, 08 Nov 2014 21:25:04 +0000
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