******TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR LIVE COVERAGE AND EVERY UPDATE LIVE FROM ADVISORY #9 ON WARDS FOR BOTH PUBLIC AND FORECAST AND MODEL UPDATES****** Hey All, Since now Hurricane Warnings have been put in place along the East Coast of America for North Carolina and Tropical Storm Warnings for South Carolina as well as Watches for both including Virginia I am now bring Live Updates from Public and Forecast Advisory #9 On wards and Model Updates when each one releases a new run with a Summary including the Map from the NHC (National Hurricane Center) in Miami, Florida. This is the first one on this page and will continue to be updated LIVE as the new Advisory comes out on Tropical Storm Arthur. So with nothing much more here is the latest Public Advisory #9 PUBLIC ADVISORY #9: ---------------------------------- 000 WTNT31 KNHC 030246 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...ARTHUR HAS NOT YET BECOME A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 79.1W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST ADVISORY #9: ----------------------------------------- 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030246 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK * PAMLICO SOUND * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY * NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.1W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.1W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 31.7N 78.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.5N 77.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.0N 70.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 45.5N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 200SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 51.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 55.5N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 79.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN MODEL SUMMARIES: GFS (Image 2): Shows the Hurricane in the Similar position as the European Model and shows the Majority of the Destructive and Damaging Wind on the Eastern Side of the System as it moves a little further North before swinging out to sea moving NE. European Model (ECMWF) (Image 3): Show similar thing to the GFS Model with the Majority of the Destructive Winds on the Eastern Side of the System. NAM (Image 4): Shows a little less and weaker system/Hurricane if not a Tropical Storm and shows it just also off the North Carolina Coast. CMC/GEM (Canadian Model) (Image 5): The Canadian also tends to be agreeing with the Euro and GFS with a Hurricane off the Coast of North Carolina but future outlook isnt available as of yet. However for winds it shows it to be even around the eye, but poses more threat on the Southeastern/Eastern Walls out over the Atlantic. JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency): Wind wise shows the more destructive winds out to the Eastern Wall of this System over the Atlantic. NAVGEM (Image 6): Same as the Canadian in Wind prediction/Forecast shows the Hurricane a little Weaker though then the Canadian Model. Destructive Wind threat on the Southeastern/Eastern Side of the Wall over the Atlantic. HWRF and GFDL: Are shown in the images also below. Showing Wind at Surface Level and 850mb level. And simulated IR4 Color Brightness Temperature (Degrees Celsius) Satellite Image. This is the latest update the next one is expected by: 5:00AM EDT. Information Source: NHC )National Hurricane Center) in Miami, Florida, Image Sources: www,weatheronline.co.uk, BSCH, ecmwf.int, tropicaltidbits and nhc.noaa.gov PLEASE NOTE: TAKE ALL THE MODELS AS PRECAUTION AS THESE CAN CHANGE AND ARE NOT ACCURATE AND TO GO TO: nhc.noaa.gov FOR THE LATEST INFO ON TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. Images 4-6: Are Surface Pressure Charts and DO NOT show the wind. ~Owner/Admin Daniel~
Posted on: Thu, 03 Jul 2014 06:58:11 +0000
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