TSR- email update NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 9 Aug, 2013 18:00 GMT Tropical Storm UTOR (11W) currently located near 13.5 N 131.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s): Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) the Philippines probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) China probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
Posted on: Fri, 09 Aug 2013 21:54:58 +0000
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