The Bob – Week 9 That’s it – one more week to go in the regular season. I love trying to figure out scenarios – so just scroll down to the playoff preview section if you’re curious. I might have told a few of you bad information last Wednesday on seeding because I forgot some of the tie-breakers, a lot can still change in Week 10! WEEK NINE RECAP: Poland 12 South Korea 11 This was a weird game. Poland was up 5 to 2 after the first, and South Korea just looked out of sorts. Meanwhile Poland looked really good early on, but then started to slip as the game went on. Poland’s scoring slipped each period, scoring 5 in the first, 4 in the second, and 3 in the third. Meanwhile South Korea found their burst in the second, scoring 6 in that period alone, with every floor player contributing behind Chris Enright’s hat trick in the second. But, this game had no flow, and even with all of the scoring it was actually a little hard to watch. South Korea had a hard time adjusting to goalie sub Brett Siebert, and Mike Sturgis filled in for Jerry Wagner. Meanwhile Poland’s whole squad was together, but like I said they definitely trailed off toward the end. They came away with the W though, and are making things interesting for the playoff picture. Poland’s stats sheet looks like they’re in pairs: both Jon Chatterton and Chris Lally had 1 goal and 2 assists each, while both Jonathon Freitag and Mike Cicatteli had 5 goals and 1 assist each. Ryan Konko had 52 saves, highest on the night, for an 83%. Joe Gandt had 3 goals, 3 assists, and 1 penalty minute, Chris Enright had 5 goals and 4 assists for a 9 point night, sub Mike Sturgis had 2 goals and 1 assist, and Matt Gilluly had 1 goal and 1 assist. Sub Brett Siebert had 43 saves for a 78%. 3 Stars (Upstairs): Mike C, Chris E, Jon F 3 Stars (The Bob): Agreement Yemen 10 Germany 9 Before the game started, just looking at the floor, I was going to name this “the game of the subs.” After the first 3 minutes I knew I had a new title “the game of the penalties.” There were 3 penalties in the first 3 minutes of the game. And they just kept going from there. This had to be a YMCA record for penalty minutes: Germany finished the game with 5 penalty minutes and Yemen had 3, and I’m not sure the statkeeper didn’t miss another couple because it felt like most of the game was on a power play or a penalty kill. I’m pretty sure we even saw our first ever YMCA 3 on 1. Either way, this was a fun game to play in, and it was intense as Germany didn’t want to drop their second straight. And my other storyline, the subs: Germany had Mike Sturgis, right after his South Korea loss, subbing for Paul Marfione, and they had Ryan Konko, right after his Poland win, subbing for Dave Fose. I’d say they are definitely comparable subs, but they had just both played a grinding game that was decided by 1 goal. Meanwhile Yemen had Brett Siebert subbing for Kenton, who also just played in that same game. So we had 3 subs, all of which had played the game before, and I’d argue all of which are pretty comparable to the players they replaced. Mike Bryant reminded the league why he is a MVP with 6 goals in the win, with 4 of those in the crucial 3rd period including the go-ahead. Mike Tepper had 1 goal and 1 assist, Gafei had 2 goals and 3 assists and 2 penalty minutes, and I had 1 goal and 1 assist and 1 penalty minute. Sub Brett Siebert had 39 saves for an 81% and added an assist. Gianni had 3 goals and 1 assist and 2 penalty minutes, sub Mike Sturgis had 2 goals and 2 assists, Chad Burdick had 3 goals and 1 assist and 2 penalty minutes, and Austin Hancock had 1 goal and 1 assist and 1 penalty minute. Sub Ryan Konko had 48 saves for an 83%. 3 Stars (Upstairs): Mike B, Gafei S, Gianni J 3 Stars (The Bob): Agreement Ireland 14 Canada 7 If I had to summarize this game in one thought it would be: Canada needs to figure out some defense. Tim Scott faced 60 shots on the night, and it was just a poor show of defense by the Canadians. They have allowed 525 shots on goal all season, most in the league by a wide margin (the next closest is USA who has allowed 480 shots – 45 shots less). That’s over 58 shots per game allowed. And watching the game just confirms what that stat suggests: the defense on this team is severely lacking. There is a lack of hustle and a lack of backchecking, not to mention some miscommunications. The team has a lot of scoring talent and ability, but if they keep hanging Tim Scott out to dry, their chances to win each game are slim. Ireland, for their part, really turned on the scoring. I thought Kurt Brownell was going to have a hat trick in the first period alone (he finished it in the second and then added another goal for good measure in the fourth). Unlike Canada, they showed a lot of hustle, and kept moving around the floor and moving the puck around to find the man that Canada inevitably left open. They did Chris Enright subbing for Tim Anderson, which reunited the historic trading pieces of Brian D’Angelo and Chris Enright. A lot of has been said (mostly by yours truly) about how Brian D’Angelo pairs with Tim Anderson as opposed to how we would have paired with Joe Gandt, or how Chris Enright pairs with Joe Gandt compared to how we would have paired with Tim Anderson, but on Wednesday we might have learned that the two of them might play better together than with either of those other two guys. Either way, Ireland gets a much needed win and morale boost while Canada is still reeling. Zach Davis finished with 4 goals, Jamie Habitzreuther had 1 assist, Jeremy Boehmer had 2 goals and 2 assists, Andy Gauvin had 1 goal and 1 assist, and Tim Scott stopped 46 of 60 for a 77%. Sub Chris Enright had 2 and 2, Brian D’Angelo had a double hat trick and 1 assist, Shane Humphrey had 2 goals, Kurt Brownell had 4 goals, and Aaron Sevedge had 31 saves for an 82%. 3 Stars (Upstairs): Brian D, Kurt B, Zach D 3 Stars (The Bob): Agreement Sweden 11 USA 10 This game was a lot closer than I expected. USA just did not want to lose, and not only did they not want to lose, but they sure as hell weren’t going to get blown out. I have a feeling they were hyped up for a few days before the game after my write up, here is a text from Tim Torrey from Monday morning after my write up (when I favored Sweden by 5.5 goals): “Not to go all Joe Namath here but I can all but guarantee we don’t lose by more than 5 goals Wednesday. Beer on the line?” Yours truly, of course, accepted that bet because I’m a cocky a****** (and have a gambling problem). Well, USA came out guns blazing on Wednesday, and came within a hair of winning their first game since Week 1 against, arguably, the hottest team in the league. On the other side of the puck, Sweden looked a little lackadaisical in the first period, and seemed a little caught off guard at USA’s intensity. If I had to guess I think USA might have come in a little too sure of themselves and underestimated USA with their 3 points on the season. They quickly realized their mistake, went from lackadaisical to more of a panicked demeanor, before they finally settled in and just played their game. As Sweden began to play their game more than reacting to USA’s push, it slowly wore USA down and Sweden wins another game, but this one was more hard fought for them than the last few. It might be just the wake up they need before the playoffs. Paul Paradine had 8 goals and 1 assist, Jon Ramsey had 1 goal and 2 assists, Dan Glading had 2 goals, Brad Burr had 0s, and Brett Siebert, playing in his 3rd game of the night, had 39 saves for an 80%. Tim Torrey had 4 goals and 2 assists, Jeff Birge played the best game I’ve seen him play in a while and had 5 goals and 1 assist to show for it, Kevin Parker had a goal and Steve Kazmark had 0s. Jesse Tredo stopped 33 shots for a 75%. 3 Stars (Upstairs): Paul P, Jeff B, Tim T 3 Stars (The Bob): Agreement 3 Stars of the Week (Upstairs): Paul P, Chris E, Mike B 3 Stars of the Week (The Bob): Paul P, Mike B, Jeff B – I was stuck between Jeff Birge and Tim Torrey for this (meaningless) honor. I don’t want to disrespect Chris Enright and his 9 point night, but the game had no flow to me and his goals and assists were valuable, but didn’t seem to drive his team. Jeff and Tim both, on the other hand, almost willed themselves to a win, and that kind of heart and determination was really cool to watch. Ultimately I give Jeff the slight edge over Tim because Jeff’s hat trick in the third period alone almost was the spoiler to Sweden’s streak. Again – my stars have no value, nor can they be redeemed for cash. POWER RANKINGS UPDATE 1. Germany: 14 points; 7-2-0 (last week: 1) I should drop them after 2 straight losses, right? I mean, I’m just being biased, or maybe sucking up after being a hater for the first half of the season, by keeping them at #1 after 2 losses. Well, the fact of the matter is they are still in first place in the league, still have the best record, and their loss this week was with two subs. I’ll keep them here unless they lose in Week 10, then they could be seeing a precipitous fall in my rankings. 2. Sweden: 11 points; 5-3-1 (last week: 2) I briefly debated putting Sweden at #1, but their 1 goal win over 8th place USA wasn’t enough to warrant it after Germany dropped a 1 goal game to a top division team with a lot of subs (and penalties). I probably sound like a broken record, but I do think Sweden is the hottest team in the league. If they had found their niche and their secret 1 game earlier, they’d be competing for the #1 spot overall because they’d be in the top division and sitting at 13 points. Heck, even if they had won the game they lost in overtime to Poland in week 4 would have them in contention for the #1 spot right now. But, it took them until Week 5 to earn their first win, and so they were in the bottom division and now they have locked up the 4. Which means every team in the top division is scrambling to stay away from the 4 spot and Sweden’s current 5 game winning streak (6 game point streak). 3. Poland: 12 points; 6-3-0 (last week: 4) They just beat South Korea, albeit with South Korea having a sub in net and on the floor, but Poland is on a 4 game winning streak and scoring at an alarming rate. Over the last four games they are scoring an average of 11.25 goals per game – the only team with a better average over the last four games is (you guessed it) Sweden at 13.25. What makes that stat more impressive though, is that Poland played Germany and South Korea during that stretch, while Sweden has played 3 of the bottom division teams during that same stretch. Meanwhile Poland is averaging only 7.5 goals allowed over the last 4 games, best in the league. They have one of the most complete teams in the league, with excellent goaltending by Ryan Konko, stellar defense by Jon Chatterton, and scoring by Mike Cicatelli. Meanwhile Chris Lally and Jon Freitag have both shown that they can help on defense when needed, and Jon has proven that he can’t be left open because he can and will score. 4. South Korea: 12 points; 6-3-0 (last week: 3) How the tables have turned for South Korea. After winning their first 5 straight, they have gone 1-3 in their last four. To me, their losses all have to do with defense and goaltending: they have only allowed double digit goal totals 3 times all season: and those are their 3 losses. When the floor players leave Matt Marfione out to dry because they’re pinching too much on offense, it spells trouble for South Korea. Marf is a great goalie, arguably the best in the league, but there are only so many shots he can stop. They are averaging 10 more shots allowed per game over the last four games compared to the first 5 games. This team has the pieces they need to bounce back though, and are within a win of the top seed overall. 5. Yemen: 10 points; 5-4-0 (last week: 5) Here is where I sound like a broken record again: we have played as a full team once. Here are some other interesting stats: we have played with all four floor players twice, and are 2-0. Mike Bryant is currently 4-0. I really like the way this team plays together when we have all four floor players on the floor, and I think we can definitely make a push into the playoffs if we have everyone there and Kenton can stay strong (hopefully not too many burritos in Mexico this past week). We have beat 3 of the top 4 teams in my power rankings when Mike Bryant has been here, so I know we have the ability. It’s just a matter of whether or not we have enough chemistry from 2 total games so far by the time the playoffs start. 6. Ireland: 6 points; 3-6-0 (last week: 7) Defense and goaltending – if those two things step up for this team, they can get a first round upset. We know they can score, Brian D’Angelo is consistently in the top 10 of scoring every season. And Tim Anderson has a sneaky long shot that people keep forgetting about. Not to mention Shane’s mid-range wrist shot and Kurt’s campaign all season to show the league that he is a scoring threat (currently just a few spots out of the top half of the league in goals scored with 14). Aaron Sevedge had shown some improvement as he learns the game, but this team only has 1 more week to iron out any kinks before it’s win or go home. 7. Canada: 7 points; 3-4-1 (last week: 6) This team confuses me. The sheer talent out of those 5 guys is incredible. I don’t know if it’s a lack of heart, or a lack of hustle, or just bad chemistry, but they just aren’t putting it together. Zach might be the most talented player in the whole league, but he is having a hard time leading and coordinating with his supporting cast. Jamie Habitzreuther is a great player, but seems to have slipped back a little this season. Jeremy has a deadly wrist shot, but he is not moving up and down the floor with any sense or urgency. Rookie Andy Gauvin has improved a ton over the last few games, I can easily see the difference in his ability, but he and the players around him aren’t translating into quality looks, or any defense. Tim Scott has always been in the top few goalies every season, but now he sits in the bottom half of the league in save percentage (but still #1 in saves per game). This team has the talent and the ability, but they are your Spring 2014 example of a team that just lacks chemistry. They have one more week to figure it out and prove me wrong. 8. USA: 3 points; 1-7-1 (last week: 8) No team has more heart than these guys, but it’s just not translating into wins. Jesse Tredo has hit a sophomore slump, Tim Torrey and Jeff Birge aren’t creating enough offense, defending (pun intended) defenseman of the year Steve Kazmark is allowing too many looks, and rookie Kevin Parker is getting lost in the shuffle. Again – in terms of talent this team has it all, and they seem to have some chemistry too. I honestly can’t put my finger on the #1 reason this team isn’t getting it done, but there is a real chance that they will hang them up after 11 games with only 1 win earned. ACTUAL RANKINGS Top Division: 1. Germany: 14 points; 7-2-0 (div: 3-2-0) 2. South Korea: 12 points; 6-3-0 (div: 3-2-0) 3. Poland: 12 points; 5-3-0 (div: 2-3-0) 4. Yemen: 10 points; 5-4-0 (div: 2-3-0) Bottom Division: 5. Sweden: 11 points; 5-3-1 (div: 4-1-0) 6. Canada: 7 points; 3-5-1 (div: 3-2-0) 7. Ireland: 6 points; 3-6-0 (div: 2-3-0) 8. USA: 3 points; 1-7-1 (div: 1-3-1) Rankings are determined by: 1. Points, 2. Head to head, 3. Divisional record, 4. Goals differential, 5. Goals for, 6. Goals against PLAYOFF PREVIEW: Here it is: the final week! Let’s see how the outcome will shake out the playoff picture: GERMANY: -With a win or an over time loss they take the #1 seed -If they lose in regulation, they will take the #2 seed (South Korea will be tied in points, tied head to head, but have a better divisional record) SOUTH KOREA: -With a win in regulation they take the #1 seed -With a win in overtime, they lock up the #2 -With a loss in overtime and a Yemen win against Poland, they take the #2 -With a loss in overtime and a Poland win against Yemen, they take the #3 -With a loss in regulation and a Poland win (or a Poland loss in overtime), they take the #3 -With a loss in regulation and a Yemen win over Poland in regulation, South Korea will still take the #2: all three teams will be tied at 12 points each. Then it will go to head to head, which in a 3 way tie, according to NHL rules, you look at the games played between the 3 teams. The records in this scenario would be: South Korea 3-1 against Yemen and Poland, Yemen 2-2 against South Korea and Poland, and Poland 1-3 against Yemen and South Korea. So if South Korea loses outright against Germany, they will be rooting hard for Yemen to beat Poland in regulation in the following game. POLAND: -The only way they take the #2 is with a win and a South Korea loss (regulation or OT). -With a win, and a Germany loss in regulation, they actually will take the #3: they would be in a 3 way tie at 14 points, they would all three be tied on head to head (Germany, South Korea, and Poland would all be 2-2 against each other in this scenario), which takes us to divisional record. In that scenario South Korea would be 4-2 within the division, and Germany and Poland 3-3, which would then take us to goal differential, where Germany currently leads +41 to Poland’s +24. -With a win and a Germany loss in OT they take the #3. -With a loss to Yemen in regulation they’re guaranteed the #4 -If they lose to Yemen in OT, they would take the #2 if South Korea lost in regulation, or the #3 if South Korea won or lost in OT. YEMEN: -A loss or OT loss locks us into the #4 -With a win in regulation we take the #3 – doesn’t matter what happens above us (see all of the scenarios above) SWEDEN: -Locked into the #5 CANADA -Win and they’re the #6 -With a loss in regulation and an Ireland win over USA they are the #7 -Lose and Ireland loses to USA and they’re the #6 -Lose in OT and they’re the #6 (even if Ireland wins they’d be tied in points, tied head to head, but Canada’s divisional record would be better at 3-2-1 vs 3-3-0) IRELAND -If Canada wins or loses in OT Ireland is locked into the #7 -With a win, and a Canada loss in regulation, they take the #6 -Anything else and they’re the #7 USA -Locked into #8 STATS UPDATE: Point leaders: 1. Paul Paradine (76), 2. Chris Enright (58), 3. Gianni Jones (56) 4. Zach Davis (55), 5. Mike Cicatelli (54), 6. Joe Gandt (47), 8. Paul Marfione (47) Points per game leaders: 1. Paul Paradine (8.4), 2. Chris Enright (6.4), 3. Gianni Jones (6.2), 4. Zach Davis (6.1), T5. Paul Marfione (6.0), T5. Mike Cicatelli (6.0), 7. Joe Gandt (5.9), 8. Mike Bryant (4.8) Goal leaders: 1. Paul Paradine (56), 2. Zach Davis (49), 3. Mike Cicatelli (41), 4. Gianni Jones (39), 5. Chris Enright (38), 6. Joe Gandt (35), 7. Brian D’Angelo (30), 8. Paul Marfione (28) Goals per game leaders: 1. Paul Paradine (6.2), 2. Zach Davis (5.4), 3. Mike Cicatelli (4.6), 4. Joe Gandt (4.4), T5. Gianni Jones (4.3), T5. Mike Bryant (4.3), 7. Chris Enright (4.2), 8. Paul Marfione (4.0) Assist leaders: T1. Paul Paradine (20), T1. Chris Enright (20), 3. Gianni Jones (17), 4. Jon Ramsey (16), T5. Paul Marfione (14), T5. Jeremy Boehmer (14), 7. Mike Cicatelli (13), 8. Joe Gandt (12) Save percentage: 1. Dave Fose (86.1%), 2. Ryan Konko (85.0%), 3. Matt Marfione (82.5%), 4. Brett Siebert (82.1%) Goals against average: 1. Dave Fose (6.43), 2. Ryan Konko (7.22), 3. Matt Marfione (7.38), 4. Brett Siebert (8.11) Saves per game: 1. Tim Scott (45.8), 2. Jesse Tredo (42.9), 3. Ryan Konko (40.9), 4. Dave Fose (39.7) The following players have earned a game star in every game they’ve played so far this season: Paul Paradine, Chris Enright, and Mike Cicatelli. Gianni Jones and Zach Davis have 8, Paul Marfione and Joe Gandt have 6. Week Star Leaders: Paul Paradine leads all players with 5. Chris Enright has 4. Gianni Jones, Mike Cicatelli, Zach Davis, and Joe Gandt have earned 3 stars of the week. WEEK 10 PREVIEW: 7:00 Ireland vs USA Two teams that need to get everything ironed out before the playoffs start. USA has one last chance to double their win total on the season, while it would do wonders for Ireland’s confidence to finish the season on a 2 game winning streak. I’m not just saying this because I now owe Tim Torrey a beer after last week’s game, but I think USA pulls off the upset here. They are playing every game like their backs are against a wall, and I think that energy and tenacity will be too much for Ireland to overcome. But I think it’s really close, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see OT. The Bob line: USA -0.5 7:45 Germany vs South Korea The game of the week. Who would have guessed that in Week 10 we’d have our top two teams playing against each other, and not only that, but the top team on a 2 game losing streak and the second place team losing 3 of 4. Both teams want to end the season on a high note, not just for seeding but for confidence entering the playoffs. With a win or at least forcing OT Germany locks up the #1 seed, but a South Korea win would give them the #1. A lot on the line, and I can’t wait to watch this game! The Bob line: Pick ‘em 8:30 Poland vs Yemen A “game of the week” seems kind of silly because for all of the players at the Y, the game of the week is always their own game. I’d love for Yemen to get the win here, especially if we can get all of our floor players together, to keep that confidence that we have yet to lose as a full team of floor players. In terms of playoff seeding – it doesn’t really matter too much to Yemen if you look at our record: we beat Sweden (before they started their hot streak, so they are a different team now), we lost to Ireland, and Canada took us to overtime. So there really is no matchup that I’d like to see more than others, so to me this game is more important to us from a pure confidence and momentum perspective. For Poland, the story is similar: they beat every single team in the bottom division. Their only 3 losses are against top division teams, so I’m not sure there is a matchup there that scares them either (but, again, their win against Sweden was before Sweden turned it around, and oddly enough was the last time Sweden lost). Either way – this will be a hard fought game, and I can’t wait to play in it. The Bob line: Pick ‘em 9:15 Sweden vs Canada Depending on the Ireland game, this game could have no playoff seeding implications (if Ireland loses in regulation, then Canada locks up the #6 and Sweden can’t move from the #5 regardless of what happens this week). So, again, this is a confidence game. Can Sweden keep the streak alive? Can Canada try to get something together and figure out their issues? This will be a fun game to watch, as Paul vs Zach could turn into an absolute shoot out. The Bob line: Sweden -2.5 I ran out of time this weekend, but I’ll try to do an awards preview sometime this week. See you guys Wednesday for the thrilling conclusion to our regular season! #IsItWednesdayYet ?
Posted on: Mon, 19 May 2014 13:20:40 +0000