The Tropics .........I didnt post about Gonzalo yesterday due to the flooding going on......Anyway........ Hurricane Gonzalo is a Category 4 with max sustained winds of 145 mph, a central pressure of 940 mb, moving north at 7 mph. He had dropped back to Category 3 storm yesterday. But after completing another eye-wall replacement , he was back to a Category 4 hurricane. Gonzalo is moving northward as he interacts with the deep-layer trough Ive been talking about the last few days. His direction should chance to north-northwest and has forward speed should increase over the coming days. On satellite Gonzalo looks very impressive with very good structure, excellent outflow, and a very well defined eye. The hurricane is encountering moderate low level wind shear of 10-15 knots, with wind shear in the upper levels of 5-10 knots. Sea surface temperatures are fairly warm, around 83°F. Right now it looks like strengthening. has stopped , but the conditions do allow for slight intensification. The wind shear looks to stay moderate into Saturday. But SSTs will drop back to 80-81°F as Gonzalo is approaching Bermuda Friday mid afternoon into early evening. The models show Gonzalos center just missing western Bermuda, This is not good news; Atlantic hurricanes have their strongest winds in the right-front quadrant. Bermuda was just smacked by Fay, Gonzalo is just going to add to all of that. As I said yesterday Gonzalo should be a Category 3-4 storm when hes at his closest approach to the island of Bermuda. Storm surge is going to be a big issue for Bermuda. Once Gonzalo clears Bermuda, he should weaken to extra-tropical by the time he impacts the Canadian Maritimes, but the storm will likely still have winds of 74-90 mph at that time. In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Ana weakened a bit overnight, due to increased wind shear... but conditions should allow the storm to reorganize over the next 24-36 hours......There is still a risk for the Hawaiian Islands. Im still watching the GOM for possible development of low pressure this weekend.
Posted on: Thu, 16 Oct 2014 17:26:25 +0000
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