The line in this story that jumped out at me was: Others may disagree, but I find the concept of revenge to be unfathomably counterproductive from a strategic, geopolitical perspective. Im also convinced thats exactly how the ISIS-affiliated perpetrators want us to react, by taking actions based on a you-cant-eff-with-us, well-show-you stance that will further solidify anti-US sentiments among fundamentalists and perhaps even strengthen them among moderate allies who have long since begun tiring of our use of the big stick and our pattern of calling on such allies to enter into dubious military excursions as a show of support. I wonder if anyone has even stopped to ask whether thats what James Foley or Steven Sotloff would have wanted. I know next to nothing about those men or the missions which led them to enter a zone where their lives were inherently at risk. The manner in which they died was about as barbaric as you can get, but countless people have no doubt died in relative secrecy after undergoing the worst kinds of prolonged torture imaginable. Ive not seen any meaningful speculation as to why Foley and Sotloff agreed to mouth the words in the scripts that ISIS wrote for them, but quite possibly it was in return for making their deaths quick and relatively painless. Was either of them hoping, during his videotaped, monotone speech, that his opting to avoid a far worse fate would not cause an emotional, knee-jerk reaction back home? Do Foleys and Sotloffs deaths, or the manner thereof, or the defiant and taunting way in which those things were shoved in Washingtons face, warrant singling out their death scenarios as the basis for taking any kind of action that we wouldnt otherwise have taken in terms of getting more deeply involved in the ISIS crisis? One of the results of the release of the beheading videos is increasing political pressure on Obama to do something, and IMO at least some part of that pressure is not founded on pure strategic thinking but on the horrific emotional reaction that watching either of the videos produces (I happened to see the entire Foley video before it was pulled offline). I think that itself is part of ISISs strategy. Should we fall for it? Should the grisly deaths of two men provoke action that otherwise might not have been taken and that might result in many other (albeit non-American) lives being lost without any assurance that the eventual outcome of things will be improved (and not worsened)? Why am I saying this? Because public opinion matters. Obamas failure to strike back at ISIS for the beheadings will contribute to the feeling among some that he is weak, directionless or whatever on foreign policy. Id really hate to see the guy be forced to do something thats against his better judgment, simply because too many people are saying Lets show those SOBs, We cant just sit here and do nothing, Act NOW, or some variation on those themes. abcnews.go/blogs/politics/2014/09/kerry-hagel-biden-remarks-appear-to-eclipse-obama-on-isis/
Posted on: Thu, 04 Sep 2014 14:23:27 +0000
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