The period, March to May, constitutes the first major rainfall season in Uganda. The latest weather forecast report released by the Department of Meteorology, Ministry of Water and Environment indicates an onset of rains in various parts of the country. This follows a meeting of international, regional and national climate scientists held in Entebbe, from February 26–28. They reviewed the state of the global climate systems and their implications on the seasonal climate in the region. It was observed that the major physical conditions likely to influence the weather conditions in Uganda and the rest of the region for March to May 2014 included the sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans, anticipated neutral El Niño conditions, and the influence of these processes will be controlled by physical features like large inland lakes. Guidance from the World Meteorological Organisation’s Global Prediction Centres and other seasonal climate forecast centres were also assessed. These inputs were combined using expert analysis and interpretation to obtain forecast probabilities for rainfall during the March to May period. Based on the above considerations as well as details of the climatology, scientific tools for climate analysis and the physical features of the different regions of the country, the Department of Meteorology has come up with a forecast. Overall, there is an increased likelihood of near-normal rainfall over most parts of Uganda. The breakdown of the forecast for each region is given as follows. Northern Region Eastern parts (Lira, Kitgum, Agago, Western Otuke, Pader, Kole, Dokolo and northern Kaberamaido districts) The region experienced isolated light showers in January and was mainly dry during February. The onset of steady rains is expected around late March to early April with peak rains expected around late April to early May. Moderate relaxation of rains is expected around mid-June and the rains are expected to pick up again by late June to early July. Overall near normal rainfall is expected in the region during the season. Central parts (Gulu, Apac, Lamwo, Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo districts) This region has been relatively dry since January. The onset of seasonal rains is expected around mid to late March. The steady rains are expected to set in around early to mid April with peak expected around late April. Moderate relaxation is expected during June, however the rains are expected intensify again by early July. In this region, near normal rainfall is expected to prevail during this season. North Western (Moyo, Yumbe, Adjumani, Arua, Terego, Zombo, Nebbi, Koboko districts) The region has been mainly dry with occasional light rains since January. The onset of seasonal rains is expected around late March. These rains are expected to reach peak levels around mid-April and cessation is expected around mid-June. There is a high chance of this region receiving near normal rainfall during this season. Western Region Central parts (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima and Kibaale districts) The region has been experiencing on and off light rains since January. The onset of seasonal rains is expected to get established by mid-March. Peak rains are expected around late March to early April. Rainfall is expected to relax by late May with the cessation occurring early June. Overall the region is expected to receive near normal tending to above normal rainfall during this season. Southern parts (Kisoro, Kabale, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi and Kasese districts) The region has been experiencing isolated light rains since January 2014 in some few areas. Currently, the onset of seasonal rains is getting established. The peak of the steady rains is expected around early April and the cessation around late May to early June. Overall the region is expected to receive near normal rainfall with tendency to below normal during this season. Eastern Region Eastern Lake Victoria and South Eastern: (Jinja, Kamuli, Iganga, Bugiri, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, Busia and Tororo districts) The region is currently experiencing dry spells with some irregular rains. This is expected to continue up to around mid-March when steady rains are expected to set in. The peak of the seasonal rains is expected around mid-April to early May. The cessation is expected around early June. Overall, this region has a high chance of receiving near normal tending to above normal rains. Eastern Central (Pallisa, Budaka, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Bududa, Kapchorwa, Kumi, southern Kaberamaido, Soroti, Serere, Amolatar, Butaleja, Bulambuli, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea and Ngora districts) This region experienced episodes of isolated rainfall during January but became relatively dry during February. The onset of steady rains is expected late March reaching the peak around late April and early May. Thereafter, moderate relaxation is expected leading to cessation of rains around mid-June. Overall the region is expected to experience near normal rain. North Eastern (Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Abim, Eastern Otuke, Napak, Amudat, Amuria, and Kaabong districts) This region has been experiencing relatively dry conditions since January. The onset of steady rains is expected around early April and moderate relaxation is expected around late June. However, the rains are expected to intensify again in July given the uni-model rainfall pattern of this region. Overall, near normal to below normal rainfall is expected in this region. Lake Victoria and central areas Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin (Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Eastern Masaka, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana districts) This region is currently experiencing dry spells with isolated light rains. The onset of seasonal rain is expected around mid to late March. The rains are expected to intensify with the peak occurring around mid-April. The cessation is expected late May to early June. Overall, there are high chances of near normal rainfall with slight tendency to above normal over this region. Western parts (Nakasongola, Luweero, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke Kiboga, Mubende, Sembabule, Western Masaka, Lyantonde, and Rakai districts) This region has been experiencing dry spells reaching drought level since January. The onset of seasonal rains is expected around mid to late March. The rains are expected to intensify with the peak occurring around late April. The cessation is expected late May to early June. Overall, there are high chances of near normal rainfall over several parts of this region. Eastern parts (Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Buvuma districts) This region is currently experiencing occasional outbreaks of light rains, which are expected gradually lead to onset of the seasonal rainfall. The steady rains are expected to intensify with the peak occurring around mid-April. Thereafter, the rains are expected to relax with cessation occurring at end of May to early June. Overall, near normal to above normal rainfall is expected over this region.
Posted on: Fri, 14 Mar 2014 07:53:39 +0000
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