Theres somethin happenin here. What it is aint exactly clear So sang Stephen Stills on Buffalo Springfields 1967 song For what its worth anyway, but he was a hippy, so what would he know? On this occasion, maybe, he is right though. The fallout of the referendum has yet to really reveal what things will be like. I get the impression from Labours mutterings that it was expected that things would go back to normal. That people would return to fighting across the same political faultlines as before, Labour Vs Tories if you will. To me this is looking naive. Scottish Labour are little more than a registered branch of UK Labour, it is UK Labour that determine everything Scottish Labour does and they have veered sharply to the right since Tony (deathbringer) Blair took the reins. Scottish Labour have had to follow suit. As Labour abandon the centre left, the SNP fills the space giving the naturally left leaning Scottish electorate a viable vote. The same is not true in England where an alternative centre left party has not materialised. Perversely, it is the Conservatives who are under pressure from Ukip to move further right. Abetted by un-metered airtime from the media and with Labour determined to out Tory the Tories it must be a grim choice voting down South. The Tories I think will win the GE. Cameron has Labour in a trap over English votes for English people, Ed cant agree or lose a labour power block from Welsh/ Scottish MPs. Which I think makes him unelectable in England overall. As England moves right and Scotland moves left the UK Government must be expecting a 2nd referendum soon (Im speculating within 5 years). The SNP will call it when they think the time is right, its pretty crucial that they get the timing of it right and not be ahead of public opinion. It wont be a 2 year campaign this time, it will be a snap referendum, done within a month or two. This could partly explain the obscene haste we have seen regarding fracking licences, war etc.. people forget quickly after all. I think the SNP wanted to win the referendum (captain obvious to the rescue) but I expect that a narrow loss wasnt a huge surprise or devastating blow either. Im fairly certain that, in actual fact there was always a plan B, and this is probably it. Independence is now on the table, now mainstream politics. This is an advantage for the second vote because the previously alien concept is now familiar. 45% is a high water mark and it seems unlikely that people having resolved to seek independence, would now choose not to. With this in mind I think it is a waste of energy to push for vote recounts, investigations into fraud etc.. Just creates a hard luck story. Better to remain engaged in the debate and continue to campaign (albeit wothout a campaign banner) for yes. The 2nd referendum will come and it will come quickly when it does, those that want Scottish independence should be readying for it now.
Posted on: Sat, 27 Sep 2014 03:50:36 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015