Trade Date: 7/26/2014 Commentary (delayed until 10.20 AM ET) -------------------------------- ZN R1-R4: 125-02-125-045, 125-06-125-085, 125-10-125-125, 125-16-125-20 ZN S1-S4: 124-28-124-30, 124-24-124-24, 124-185-124-20, 124-105-124-16 ZN/ZB Commentary: Today is options expiration for Treasuries. The 10 Y spread is 124-16/125-16, which favors a close at 125-00+/-. The 30 Y spread is 137/138, which favors a close at 137-16. The NOB spread gathered strength OVN so the 30 Y close today should be close to 138-00, IMO. Little news out OVN for the markets. The UK GDP showed +.8% growth and German Investor Confidence slipped from 109 to 108. The fighting in Israel escalated with riots on the West Bank. Surprised it hasn’t happened sooner. Hamas is pulling out all stops now. Yesterday’s EU sanctions against Russia were meaningless. Shows what happens when you tie 30% of your energy needs to your previous arch enemy. Today’s news in the US could shake things up given last night’s poor EPS reports from Amazon and Visa. Durable Goods could carry more impact than normal today. Durable Goods is forecast at +.5%, ex-Transportation at +.7%. The focus will be on the ex-Transportation number. Think today’s market will be range bound. Will plan on a close at 125-00. Want to sell failure to take out 125-04/08 and to buy against support at 124-24/28 to get started this AM. First sell is 125-03/07 followed by 125-11/15. Plan on a cover at 124-29 OB. First buy is 124-25/29 followed by 124-17/21. Plan on an exit at 125-03 OB. Will adjust post the Durable Goods number. -------------------------------- ZB R1-R4: 138-03-138-04, 138-07-138-08, 138-11-138-15, 138-20-138-27 ZB S1-S4: 137-24-137-25, 137-20-137-21, 137-13-137-16, 137-04-137-08
Posted on: Sat, 26 Jul 2014 21:19:18 +0000
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