Translated: Javier Aja. Dublin (EFE) .- Almost ten months after Ireland successfully abandon the rescue from the EU and IMF, the confidence of consumers is at its highest level in seven years for the smooth running of the economy and the expected relaxation austerity policy. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) reached 89.4 points in July, a figure not seen since January 2007, when not yet sensed that the bursting of the housing bubble was going to drag the national bank. The collapse of both sectors led the Irish Government to take a mountain of debt that eventually choke and force him to ask for in 2010 a program of support for the European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) by 85.000 million. Since then, the ICC, which produces each month KBC Bank and the Irish Institute of Socio Economic Research (ESRI), had not lifted his head as a result of the austerity imposed each year by Dublin in the national budget, however Estado.No now there is a general consensus that the economic recovery that began last year is solid and real, which builds trust among citizens, told Efe economist David McNamara, a consultancy Davy Stockbrokers. After the gross domestic product (GDP) grew a modest 0.2% in 2013, Irish exports, the engine of the economy, are going to rebound strongly, which has been revised upwards forecasts for 2014, said the expert. Davy Stockbrokers said this week that Irish GDP will grow by 3.5% this year, compared with 2% predicted a few months ago, while in 2015 and 2016 growth could be 3 and 2.8%, respectivamente.También for optimism, says McNamara, the fact that other indicators real economy as the gross national product (GNP), which excludes the contributions of multinationals and, he says, a more reliable average, grow by 3 2% last year. Also added, employment rose 3% in 2013 and is expected to unemployment, which reached its peak of 15% in 2012, falling below 10% in 2015, twelve months earlier than planned by the government. To these must be added macroeconomic data continues McNamara, the executive coalition between Conservatives and Labour in October will present a much softer 2015 budget, when it has committed to cutting the public deficit to 3% of GDP. The economic advisers and government agencies like the IMF have recommended Dublin keep cutting around 2,000 million euros in the accounts for 2015, but Davy Stockbrokers and other analysts believe that € 500 million will be sufficient to achieve the goal of deficit. These are realistic figures, which also helps the GDP revision, which now includes some illegal activities, making it easier to reach the deficit target set by Brussels at 4.8% of GDP in 2014 and 3% for next year, said McNamara. The government is being forced to relax austerity after the punishment suffered by Conservative and Labour in the last local elections and European, the source said. Remember -precisa- there will be early elections and politicians want to be seen to make something. We have put together an electioneering purpose, a rule change in GDP and a renewed confidence in the economy. It can be said that has formed the perfect storm. There are, however, risks for such a globalized and open as the Irish, especially exposed to the instability of the international economy and the EU and the euro area economy, warns chief Efe KBC Bank economist Austin Hughes. In his opinion, the Irish consumer confidence has risen because the signs are positive and because it expects to austerity but still behaves with caution for a while, until it finds that the improvement has come to your pocket . Hughes recalls that Irish households are among the most indebted in Europe by presenting an average of 196% of gross disposable income, compared with 137% in the UK or 123% of the United States.
Posted on: Sun, 17 Aug 2014 23:43:20 +0000
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