Tropical Cyclone Bansi REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 57.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH FEEDER BANDS SURROUNDING A 12-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON SIMILAR DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM EXHIBITS DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEER (VWS). TC 05S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST- NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING AND REORIENTING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). SLOW OR NEAR QUASI- STATIONARY MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THROUGHOUT THAT PERIOD, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. BEYOND TAU 48, TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT IS DRIVEN BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. OVER THIS PERIOD, TC BANSI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES ALONG ITS EXPECTED TRACK. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.// NNNN
Posted on: Tue, 13 Jan 2015 09:59:28 +0000
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