Tropical Depression 24W (SANTI) has slightly gained strength while slowing down over the central part of the Philippine Sea. Threat to Luzon continues...with a Projected Landfall Area over the province of Aurora on Saturday morning. Its outermost, developing rainbands are now spreading along the eastern shorelines of Catanduanes and Northern Samar. Residents and visitors along Luzon including Bicol Region and Batanes Group of Islands should closely monitor the development of 24W (Santi). Distance 1: 625 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes Distance 2: 635 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes Distance 3: 700 km ENE of Legazpi City Distance 4: 740 km ENE of Metro Naga Distance 5: 870 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora Distance 6: 895 km E of Infanta, Quezon Distance 7: 960 km E of Metro Manila CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Saturday [between 8AM-10AM PhT] 24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [500 mm] Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) Size (in Diameter): --- km [N/A] Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 09 feet CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS: As of 11:00 am today, the developing center of TD 24W (Santi) was located over the Central Philippine Sea...about 625 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes or 870 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 07 km/hr towards Central & Northern Luzon. Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 24W (Santi) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm). 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*: TD 24W (Santi) is expected to continue moving west-northwest with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours...with a slight westerly turn by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 24W (Santi) will continue to remain over the Central Philippine Sea on Thursday morning...passing well to the north of Bicol Region on Friday afternoon. TD 24W (Santi) will rapidly intensify during the next 24 to 48 hours...becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight and eventually into a Category 1 Typhoon on Friday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds reaching a peak of more than 130 km/hr before it makes landfall over Aurora Province by early Saturday morning. The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system: THURSDAY MORNING: Becomes a TS as it moves west-northwest across the Central Philippine Sea...about 565 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [11AM OCT 10: 15.4N 127.3E @ 85kph]. FRIDAY MORNING: Rapidly strengthens into a Category 1 Typhoon as it turns west while moving closer to the province of Aurora...about 260 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [11AM OCT 11: 15.8N 124.5E @ 120kph]. SATURDAY MORNING: Over Nueva Ecija-Nueva Vizcaya Border...crossing the northern part of Central Luzon...about 75 km east of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [11AM OCT 12: 15.9N 121.0E @ 130ph]. *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY: Below is the summary of the storms parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts. DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central part of the Philippine Sea and the eastern coastal areas of Northern Samar & Catanduanes. 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 199 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 200 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west and near the center of 24W (Santi). Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs! Created by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.ph and iTyphoon Source of info: WeatherPhilippines Tropical Cyclone Updates @ weather.ph/news DISCLAIMER: iTyphoon provides tropical cyclone information for the general public viewing, but is not responsible for its ultimate use in the forecasting of tropical cyclones and/or the use of public watches/warnings. Due to this, iTyphoon cannot guarantee the availability or timely delivery of data and should not be used to support operational observation, forecasting, emergency or disaster mitigation operations - public or private. Neither iTyphoon nor the author(s) shall be liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Do not use these data to make life or death decision.
Posted on: Wed, 09 Oct 2013 06:45:29 +0000
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