Tropical Storm RUMBIA (GORIO) has moved northwesterly while over the West Philippine Sea...as its threat to the Philippines continues to diminish. This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Spratly Islands and Palawan tonight. Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of RUMBIA (GORIO). PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNALS: SIGNAL NO. 1 - PANGASINAN & ZAMBALES. All Storm Signals are now lowered. Gradual improvement of the weather will be expected today and tomorrow. Distance 1: 208 km WSW of Cape Bolinao Distance 2: 235 km WNW of Iba, Zambales Distance 3: 268 km WSW of San Fernando City Distance 4: 285 km WNW of Subic Bay Distance 5: 326 km SW of Vigan City Distance 6: 363 km WNW of Metro Manila Distance 7: 800 km SSE of Hong Kong Distance 8: 866 km SE of Qionghai, Hainan 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm] Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa) Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average] Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS: As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TS Rumbia (Gorio) was located over West Philippine Sea...about 208 km west-southwest of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan or 285 km west-northwest of Subic Bay, Zambales...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of the Southern China. Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remained at 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center. A WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Mamburao, Occidental Mindoro has recorded 142.0 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in a span of 24 hours, which is considered heavy. Rumbia (Gorio) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Rumbia (Gorio) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm). 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*: TS Rumbia (Gorio) is expected to continue moving northwestward during the next 24 hours...with a turn to the north-northwest by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Rumbia (Gorio) will continue to move across the West Philippine Sea tonight and exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Monday morning. Rumbia will then be moving across the South China Sea throughout Monday...and will make its final landfall over Western Guangdong in Southern China on Tuesday morning...and will continue to move across China Mainland Tuesday evening. Rumbia (Gorio) is forecast to gain more strength as it moves across the West Philippine and South China Seas within the next 12 to 24 hours, reaching its peak intensity of 100 km/hr. The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system: MONDAY EVENING: Strengthening over the South China Sea, outside of the PAR...about 267 km east-southeast of Haikou, Hainan Island [6PM JULY 01: 19.6N 112.9E @ 100kph]. TUESDAY EVENING: Moving across China Mainland...rapidly dissipating...about 261 km north-northwest of Zhanjiang City, China [6PM JULY 02: 23.5N 109.6E @ 75kph]. *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY: Below is the summary of the storms parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across the West Philippine Sea. Affected Areas: Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across Western Coast of Luzon. Affected Areas: Zambales and Pangasinan. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands. 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the west, north and near the center of Rumbia (Gorio). Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Posted on: Sun, 30 Jun 2013 11:04:36 +0000
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