UPDATE ON REVIEW OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET by John Grimes, CEO, Australian Solar Council ACIL Allen has been commissioned by the government’s Renewable Energy Target (RET) Review Panel to provide economic modelling on the future of the RET. Yesterday the Australian Solar Council attended a four hour workshop where ACIL Allen presented the findings of their modelling work. While the findings may be altered there will be no further public access – the modelling will form part of the Panel’s report to Government. At the government’s direction ACIL Allen has modelled four scenarios against the ‘Reference Case’ of the existing RET. They are: 1. The ‘Repeal Case’ – Abolish the RET outright on the 1st of January 2015 – this is self-explanatory - no scheme or certificates from that date 2. The ‘No New Entrants Case’ – Close the RET to new entrants on 1st of January 2015 - The SRES closes, only a very few existing ‘confirmed’ large-scale projects continue to generate large-scale certificates - no new projects) 3. A ‘Real 20%’ target by 2020 (~25,500GW/h by 2020) 4. A ‘Real 30%’ target by 2030 (~53,000GW/h by 2030) BIASED ASSUMPTIONS As expected, all of the assumptions were prejudicial to renewable energy and highly supportive of the incumbent generators. Let me just give you two examples: * The models assume gas prices will fall between now and 2016 and then remain at today’s prices until 2040 * The models also assume coal prices will fall between now and 2040 They did not model the impacts on the 5% emissions reduction target by 2020 or the impact of the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF). We were told: * Renewables reduce emissions but at a very high cost ($155 per tonne for solar PV) * On projected demand no new generation is needed out until 2040 * Coal-fired power plants can run to 75 years or more * The RET ‘traded certain costs for uncertain benefits’ The first 2 options (abolish the RET) seem to be those favored by the modellers, and in each case mothballed polluting coal generation would come back online The RET ‘represents a transfer of wealth from generators to consumers’ And so it went – for four hours. THE FUTURE OF THE SMALL-SCALE SCHEME The biased assumptions used for the modelling showed that solar PV ‘did not really require any assistance’ and the market would remain static at between 500 and 600 MW per year out until 2040. The concluding comment from the ACIL Allen CEO was that the SRES could be closed down because it was not required. But the most telling comment was that if the solar PV sector were to really be shut down it would require the scrapping of the SRES and HIGHER FIXED ELECTRICITY PRICES to undermine the business case for solar PV. From the outset the Australian Solar Council has warned against complacency. The RET Review is not the end of the attack on solar PV in this country. This is just phase 1. We can conclude from their own words that this is an attack on consumers on behalf of the few existing generators who own more than 80% of the market. We have to act ourselves and rally consumers to our cause – the five million Australians who have solar saving them money now and the millions more who want to get solar to save money. THE ABBOTT GOVERNMENTS RENEWABLE ENERGY LIE There was one bright spot yesterday. The Australian Solar Council has applied significant pressure from the outset to ensure that the wholesale cost reductions to consumers of renewable energy are modeled in this process. And now they have been. Despite prejudicing every assumption in the model against renewable energy the stunning admission yesterday from the modellers was this: * The MORE renewable energy you deploy the CHEAPER electricity becomes for all customers * The LESS renewable energy you deploy the more EXPENSIVE electricity becomes for all customers. This shows that the assertion that renewable energy pushes up electricity prices is a lie. But, as expected after these results were tabled, almost a full hour was dedicated to telling us why this modelling outcome could not be relied upon. It was just too flimsy they said. There are too many variables they said. If there is one thing in our modelling that is questionable it is this they said. No mention of gas price or other modelling being flawed. Now the Prime Minister and his government has a big choice to make. Side with the public and support renewable energy or Side with the vested interests, the existing generators, the coal industry and make Australians pay financially, environmentally, socially and with declining rates of health. OUR RESPONSE The Australian Solar Council is drafting its response. Yesterday we learnt that more than 15,000 solar workers have no certainty over whether they will have a job by Christmas this year. This is unacceptable. The Australian Solar Council campaign will now move into its next gear. We will keep you posted… Kind Regards, John Grimes CEO, Australian Solar Council [email protected]
Posted on: Tue, 24 Jun 2014 22:16:46 +0000
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