UPdate: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1945 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY THROUGH EXTREME SRN IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 542... VALID 060353Z - 060530Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 542 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ACROSS WRN KY INTO EXTREME SRN IND. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH STORMS ON NRN END OF LINE NEAR THE KY/IND BORDER. DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO MORE OR LESS A SOLID LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWP AND BOW SIGNATURES OVER WRN KY. A ROTATING COMMA HEAD FEATURE WAS ALSO OBSERVED ALONG THE NRN END OF THE LINE. RADAR DATA FROM PADUCAH SHOW A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING AHEAD OF THE MORE INTENSE CORES. THIS SUGGESTS PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND EXCEPT ALONG NRN END OF THE LINE WHERE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT...AND WHERE AN EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND SIZE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAS INCREASED AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE MOVING NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID OUT BY PREVIOUS STORMS RENDERING THE NEAR SFC LAYER LESS UNSTABLE WHICH...ALONG WITH THE LINEAR STORM MODES...APPEAR TO BE SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST TORNADO THREAT. ..DIAL.. 10/06/2013
Posted on: Sun, 06 Oct 2013 04:00:40 +0000
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